{"symbol":"COST","fiscalQuarter":"Q4-2026","reportDate":"2026-09-24","reportTime":"AMC","status":"upcoming","company":{"name":"Costco Wholesale Corporation","sector":"Consumer Staples","industry":"Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail"},"tier":"free","webUrl":"https://earningsnxt.ai/ticker/COST/earnings/Q4-2026","preBrief":{"companySnapshot":"Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is a leading retailer known for its membership-based warehouse club model, offering a wide range of products from groceries to electronics. As a major player in the consumer staples sector, Costco's performance is closely tied to consumer spending patterns and economic conditions, making it a key indicator for retail trends.","keyMetrics":[{"name":"Same-Store Sales Growth","why":"This metric indicates how well existing stores are performing and reflects consumer demand.","consensus":"Expected to show solid growth, reflecting strong customer loyalty."},{"name":"Membership Growth","why":"An increase in membership can drive sales and profitability, as it indicates a growing customer base.","consensus":"Expected to continue its upward trend, supporting revenue growth."},{"name":"Gross Margin","why":"Gross margin is crucial for understanding profitability, especially in a competitive retail environment.","consensus":"Expected to remain stable or improve slightly."}],"lastQuarterRecap":{"summary":"In Q3 2026, Costco reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $4.93, slightly beating expectations. Despite the positive surprise, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day.","promises":["Focus on expanding product offerings to enhance customer experience.","Commitment to maintaining low prices to attract more members.","Plans to invest in e-commerce capabilities to compete with online retailers."]},"wallStreetExpectations":{"summary":"Overall, analysts expect Costco to report strong earnings driven by robust consumer demand and effective cost management. However, concerns about inflation and economic conditions could impact results.","bullCase":"If Costco demonstrates strong same-store sales growth and effective management of costs, it could lead to a significant positive reaction in the stock.","bearCase":"Conversely, if inflation pressures lead to squeezed margins or weaker-than-expected sales, the stock could see a notable decline."},"optionsSignal":{"impliedMove":"3.27%","context":"The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.27%, indicating some uncertainty ahead of the earnings report."},"earningsTrackRecord":[{"quarter":"Q3-2026","epsSurprise":"+0.31%","reaction":"-0.85%"},{"quarter":"Q2-2026","epsSurprise":"+0.75%","reaction":"-2.40%"},{"quarter":"Q1-2026","epsSurprise":"+5.68%","reaction":"+1.15%"},{"quarter":"Q4-2025","epsSurprise":"+1.05%","reaction":"-0.21%"},{"quarter":"Q3-2025","epsSurprise":"+0.71%","reaction":"-0.43%"},{"quarter":"Q2-2025","epsSurprise":"-1.62%","reaction":"-2.02%"},{"quarter":"Q1-2025","epsSurprise":"+6.71%","reaction":"-0.63%"},{"quarter":"Q4-2024","epsSurprise":"+4.84%","reaction":"-0.77%"}],"pivotalQuestions":[{"question":"What is the expected same-store sales growth rate for Q4-2026?","whyItMatters":"This figure will be crucial in assessing consumer demand and overall business health."},{"question":"How is Costco managing inflationary pressures on its gross margins?","whyItMatters":"Investors will closely watch for insights on cost management strategies that could impact profitability."}],"thesisBreakLevels":{"bullTrigger":"Same-store sales growth of 7% or higher would confirm the bull case.","bearTrigger":"Gross margins declining below 13% would confirm the bear case.","context":"The core debate this quarter centers around Costco's ability to sustain growth amid economic pressures and inflation."},"scenarioPlaybook":{"beatAndRaise":"If Costco beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.15% the next day, confirming strong operational performance.","inLineCautious":"A cautious inline report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further clarity on future growth prospects.","miss":"If Costco misses earnings expectations, the stock could drop by approximately 2.02%, reflecting investor disappointment."},"peerReadThroughs":[],"setupPatternInsight":{"pattern":"Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples","sampleSize":30,"fadeRate":"9 of 28 (32%)","insight":"This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 19 of 28 (68%) held or extended their move within 5 days \u2014 this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.7%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias)."},"whatTheStreetIsMissing":{"thesis":"The Street may be underestimating Costco's ability to manage inflation and maintain customer loyalty, which could lead to stronger-than-expected sales.","supportingPoints":["Costco has historically shown resilience in tough economic conditions, maintaining strong membership growth.","Options pricing suggests a larger potential move than what historical performance indicates, signaling market uncertainty.","Recent insider buying activity may indicate confidence in the company's future performance."],"riskToConsensus":"If same-store sales growth exceeds 7%, it could significantly shift market sentiment."},"whatToListenFor":["Updates on membership growth and retention rates.","Details on how inflation is impacting pricing strategies.","Insights into e-commerce sales performance and future plans.","Any commentary on supply chain challenges and cost management.","Expectations for the upcoming holiday season sales."],"metaDescription":"Costco (COST) reports Q4 2026 earnings on September 24. Analysts expect strong same-store sales growth amid economic pressures."}}