Equity Profile

AA

Alcoa Corporation

MaterialsAluminum$19.0B

Apr16Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:10 PM EDT

Alcoa Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.04%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.40	N/A	-12.50%

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Alcoa Misses on EPS, Stock Up 0.04%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.40	N/A	-12.50%

Management Commentary

Tone: Defensive

Overall, management expressed concerns about market volatility but remains focused on internal improvements. They did not provide specific guidance for future quarters.

Management acknowledged the challenging market conditions affecting performance.

They emphasized a focus on cost management and operational efficiency.

What It Means

Alcoa's earnings report indicates a miss on EPS expectations, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability in a challenging market. Despite the earnings miss, the stock saw a slight increase of 0.04%, suggesting that investors may be taking a wait-and-see approach. The lack of guidance could lead to uncertainty in future performance expectations.

Company Snapshot

Alcoa Corp (AA) is a leading producer of aluminum, which is essential for various industries, including automotive, aerospace, and construction. As a key player in the materials sector, Alcoa's performance is closely tied to global demand for aluminum and trends in sustainable manufacturing.

Key Metrics to Watch

Aluminum Prices

Aluminum prices directly impact Alcoa's revenue and profitability, making it crucial to monitor this metric.

N/A

Production Volume

The amount of aluminum produced can indicate operational efficiency and market demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+36.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Alcoa reported an earnings surprise with an EPS of $1.26, significantly higher than expectations. However, the stock experienced a slight decline the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving production efficiency.
Commitment to sustainability initiatives.
Plans to reduce operational costs.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Alcoa's upcoming earnings, especially given the recent positive surprises. However, concerns about fluctuating aluminum prices and production costs remain prevalent.

Bull Case

If aluminum prices remain strong and production volumes increase, Alcoa could see substantial revenue growth and improved margins.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if production costs rise or aluminum prices decline, Alcoa may face challenges that could impact profitability.

Edge

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.46%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

This implied move suggests that the market anticipates significant volatility around the earnings report, which is higher than typical historical moves.

Options are pricing ±10.4% while AA has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

62.5%

Calls (778K)P/C Ratio: 0.66Puts (516K)

Preparation

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on aluminum pricing trends and forecasts.
2Details on production efficiency improvements.
3Insights into cost management strategies.
4Progress on sustainability initiatives.
5Any commentary on global demand for aluminum.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Aluminum Prices

Aluminum prices directly impact Alcoa's revenue and profitability, making it crucial to monitor this metric.

N/A

Production Volume

The amount of aluminum produced can indicate operational efficiency and market demand.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+36.16%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.75%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving production efficiency.
Commitment to sustainability initiatives.
Plans to reduce operational costs.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If aluminum prices remain strong and production volumes increase, Alcoa could see substantial revenue growth and improved margins.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if production costs rise or aluminum prices decline, Alcoa may face challenges that could impact profitability.

Edge

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.46%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

This implied move suggests that the market anticipates significant volatility around the earnings report, which is higher than typical historical moves.

Options are pricing ±10.4% while AA has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

30d HV

62.5%

Calls (778K)P/C Ratio: 0.66Puts (516K)

Preparation

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on aluminum pricing trends and forecasts.
2Details on production efficiency improvements.
3Insights into cost management strategies.
4Progress on sustainability initiatives.
5Any commentary on global demand for aluminum.