Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±23.9%
EPS beat rate
88%
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) operates in the information technology sector, focusing on communications equipment. The company is significant as it provides optical networking products, which are essential for data centers and broadband networks, especially as demand for high-speed internet continues to grow.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, AAOI reported an EPS of $0.06, significantly beating expectations of a loss. However, the stock fell by 3.38% the next day, indicating mixed market reactions.
EPS beat streak
4Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+82.27%
Avg 1-day reaction
-1.29%
Overall, expectations for AAOI are mixed as the company has shown a strong EPS surprise history, yet the stock often reacts negatively post-earnings.
Bull case
If AAOI continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational improvements and market confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to maintain profitability or revenue growth, it could lead to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will AAOI report a positive EPS, and if so, by how much?
Given the company's history of EPS surprises, this will be a key indicator of financial health and could significantly influence stock performance.
Q2
What are the revenue growth figures for this quarter?
Revenue growth will provide insights into market demand for AAOI's products and its competitive position in the industry.
Est. EPS
$1.98
Est. Rev
$113.6B
Impl. Move
±4.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate AAOI's ability to leverage recent technological advancements in optical networking, which could drive unexpected revenue growth.
Supporting evidence
AAOI has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance than anticipated.
The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that traders expect a more volatile reaction than historical averages.
The company's focus on data center products aligns with increasing demand for high-speed internet, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching AAOI's ability to maintain profitability and revenue growth, which are critical for investor confidence.
Bull confirmed if
A positive EPS of $0.10 or higher would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than $0.05 would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±23.24%
Historical Avg
±7.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±23.9% while AAOI has averaged ±7.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
1.0%
30d HV
84.5%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$720,180.00
6,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$720,180.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$720,180.00
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
63.35%
of float
Insider
9.78%
of float
Holders
631
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
6,450,270 sh · $790.4M
7.63%
-10.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AAOI beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest decline, confirming operational strength but leading to profit-taking.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting cautious optimism from investors.
Miss
If AAOI misses expectations, history suggests a potential drop of around 3.87%, indicating disappointment in the market.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Oct 5, 2026 · @ $120.03
6,000 sh
$720,180.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Invesco Ltd.
3,414,262 sh · $418.4M
4.04%
69.5%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,363,001 sh · $412.1M
3.98%
9.9%
Marex Group Ltd.
2,830,272 sh · $346.8M
3.35%
878.8%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,651,718 sh · $324.9M
3.14%
47.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.