Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 21, 2026
EPS actual
$0.77
EPS est.
$0.39
EPS surprise
+95.43%
1-day move
+14.40%
Advance Auto Parts reported a strong earnings per share, significantly beating expectations, which led to a slight increase in the stock price. However, the lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS surprise but will likely look for more information in future reports.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.77 | $0.43 | +95.43% |
| Revenue | N/A | $2.6B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) is a leading retailer of automotive parts and accessories in the consumer discretionary sector. The company plays a crucial role in the automotive retail industry, catering to both professional installers and do-it-yourself customers, which is significant as vehicle maintenance and repair needs continue to grow.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Advance Auto Parts reported an EPS of $0.86, significantly beating estimates. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leading to mixed market reactions.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
7Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+28.12%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.84%
Analysts expect a modest performance from Advance Auto Parts this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.43 and revenue of $2.6 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of recovery in sales and profitability.
Bull case
If the company can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it may indicate a turnaround in its performance, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price, reflecting ongoing challenges in the automotive retail sector.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.43Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
2.6BTotal revenue reflects the company's sales performance and market demand for automotive parts.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.43?
A strong EPS performance could indicate improved profitability and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?
Clear guidance on revenue growth will help investors gauge the company's outlook and ability to navigate current market challenges.
—
Est. EPS
$1.35
Est. Rev
$406M
Impl. Move
±7.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating the potential for a strong earnings surprise given the recent positive trends in automotive sales and the company's cost-cutting measures.
Supporting evidence
The company has a history of exceeding EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that investors are anticipating a larger reaction than what consensus estimates imply.
Key risk
If the company reports an EPS significantly above $0.50, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Advance Auto Parts can sustain its recent positive earnings surprises or if it will revert to disappointing results.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and growth potential.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.30 would suggest ongoing struggles and could lead to a significant sell-off.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.04%
Historical Avg
±16.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±12.0% while AAP has averaged ±16.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
ATM IV
2.0%
30d HV
53.3%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 7 of 21 (33%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 14 of 21 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.4%, with a raw directional average of -3.0% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
127.12%
of float
Insider
0.74%
of float
Holders
490
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
9,352,439 sh · $385.3M
15.48%
4.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AAP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.85%, confirming a positive trend in performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further clarity from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 9.27%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns over the company's future.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Price (T.Rowe) Associates Inc
8,428,863 sh · $347.3M
13.96%
5.6%
Pzena Investment Management LLC
4,389,501 sh · $180.8M
7.27%
2.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
3,740,719 sh · $154.1M
6.19%
3.3%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
3,063,303 sh · $126.2M
5.07%
44.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.