Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$0.02
EPS est.
$0.04
EPS surprise
-54.55%
1-day move
-3.89%
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals reported lower-than-expected earnings per share, which contributed to a decline in the stock price by 3.89%. The revenue figures were not disclosed, adding uncertainty to the overall performance. Investors may be concerned about the company's ability to meet future expectations given the EPS miss.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.02 | $0.08 | -54.55% |
| Revenue | — | $281M | — |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative therapies for central nervous system disorders. With a market cap of $4 billion, it plays a significant role in the health care sector, particularly in addressing unmet medical needs in mental health.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, ACADIA reported an impressive EPS of $1.60, significantly surpassing analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.55% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+248.44%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.70%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about ACADIA's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest EPS of $0.08 and revenue of $281 million. Given the company's recent strong performance, there is potential for a positive surprise.
Bull case
If ACADIA beats expectations again, it could signal continued strong demand for its products and further validate its growth strategy, leading to a potential stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet the consensus estimates, it may raise concerns about its growth trajectory and market competitiveness, potentially leading to a decline in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.08Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$281MRevenue figures help assess the company's market performance and growth potential.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ACADIA's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.08?
A significant beat could reinforce positive market sentiment and validate the company's growth strategy.
Q2
What are the revenue figures compared to the expected $281 million?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing the company's market position and future growth potential.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate ACADIA's growth potential, as recent product developments could drive higher demand than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational performance.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant news.
Insider selling may not reflect a lack of confidence but rather individual financial planning.
Key risk
If revenue comes in significantly above $281 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether ACADIA can sustain its recent momentum or if it faces challenges ahead.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm strong demand for ACADIA's products.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.02 would raise concerns about the company's growth prospects.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.53%
Historical Avg
±2.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 5.5%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.5% while ACAD has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
36.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
99.68%
of float
Insider
0.33%
of float
Holders
474
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Baker Bros. Advisors, LP
42,912,904 sh · $843.2M
24.91%
0.0%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ACADIA beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.65%, confirming the company's strong market position.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock value, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.84%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
22,515,173 sh · $442.4M
13.07%
4.5%
State Street Corporation
9,076,212 sh · $178.3M
5.27%
8.9%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
8,838,450 sh · $173.7M
5.13%
1.9%
RTW Investments LP
7,144,524 sh · $140.4M
4.15%
Flat
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.