Equity Profile

ACHC

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

Health CareHealth Care Facilities$2.8B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) operates in the health care sector, focusing on providing behavioral health services through its network of facilities....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, and investors will be keen to see if Acadia can continue its trend of beating estimates.

$0.37

Revenue Growth

While specific revenue estimates are not available, growth in revenue is crucial for Acadia's expansion and ability to invest in new facilities and services.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ACHC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) operates in the health care sector, focusing on providing behavioral health services through its network of facilities. As mental health awareness grows, the demand for such services is increasing, making Acadia an important player in this industry.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+28.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+3.69%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Acadia reported an EPS of $0.37, exceeding expectations by 31.67%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.47% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding service offerings.
Commitment to improving patient care and outcomes.
Plans to open new facilities in underserved areas.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, the market is optimistic about Acadia's upcoming earnings, especially given its recent performance and the growing demand for mental health services.

Bull Case

If Acadia continues to beat EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could lead to a significant increase in stock price, reflecting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports declining patient admissions, it could result in a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

$0.37

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, and investors will be keen to see if Acadia can continue its trend of beating estimates.

Revenue Growth

N/A

While specific revenue estimates are not available, growth in revenue is crucial for Acadia's expansion and ability to invest in new facilities and services.

Patient Admissions

N/A

An increase in patient admissions can signal strong demand for Acadia's services, which is vital for revenue growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and will it exceed $0.37?

A higher EPS would reinforce the company's growth trajectory and investor confidence, while a miss could raise concerns.

How many new patient admissions were recorded this quarter?

This metric is crucial for understanding demand for Acadia's services and its potential for revenue growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for Acadia to exceed EPS expectations due to increasing demand for mental health services, which could drive higher patient admissions.

Supporting Evidence

Acadia has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational management.

Options pricing suggests a significant move is expected, reflecting uncertainty that could favor a positive surprise.

The growing focus on mental health in public policy could lead to increased funding and demand for services.

Key Risk

If patient admissions exceed expectations, it could invalidate the cautious outlook currently held by many analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Acadia's ability to maintain its growth trajectory in a competitive landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.40 or higher would confirm the bullish outlook and demonstrate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would signal potential issues with profitability and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.18%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect either strong performance or disappointing results.

Options are pricing ±9.2% while ACHC has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (6K)P/C Ratio: 2.71Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Acadia beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.2%, confirming the bullish sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about 0.85%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new facility openings and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any changes in patient admission trends compared to previous quarters.
3Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
4Insights into competitive pressures and how Acadia plans to address them.
5Future guidance on EPS and revenue expectations for the next quarter.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) operates in the health care sector, focusing on providing behavioral health services through its network of facilities....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, and investors will be keen to see if Acadia can continue its trend of beating estimates.

$0.37

Revenue Growth

While specific revenue estimates are not available, growth in revenue is crucial for Acadia's expansion and ability to invest in new facilities and services.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ACHC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+28.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+3.69%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Acadia reported an EPS of $0.37, exceeding expectations by 31.67%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.47% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding service offerings.
Commitment to improving patient care and outcomes.
Plans to open new facilities in underserved areas.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, the market is optimistic about Acadia's upcoming earnings, especially given its recent performance and the growing demand for mental health services.

Bull Case

If Acadia continues to beat EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could lead to a significant increase in stock price, reflecting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or reports declining patient admissions, it could result in a negative reaction from investors.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

$0.37

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, and investors will be keen to see if Acadia can continue its trend of beating estimates.

Revenue Growth

N/A

While specific revenue estimates are not available, growth in revenue is crucial for Acadia's expansion and ability to invest in new facilities and services.

Patient Admissions

N/A

An increase in patient admissions can signal strong demand for Acadia's services, which is vital for revenue growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and will it exceed $0.37?

A higher EPS would reinforce the company's growth trajectory and investor confidence, while a miss could raise concerns.

How many new patient admissions were recorded this quarter?

This metric is crucial for understanding demand for Acadia's services and its potential for revenue growth.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate the potential for Acadia to exceed EPS expectations due to increasing demand for mental health services, which could drive higher patient admissions.

Supporting Evidence

Acadia has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, indicating strong operational management.

Options pricing suggests a significant move is expected, reflecting uncertainty that could favor a positive surprise.

The growing focus on mental health in public policy could lead to increased funding and demand for services.

Key Risk

If patient admissions exceed expectations, it could invalidate the cautious outlook currently held by many analysts.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Acadia's ability to maintain its growth trajectory in a competitive landscape.

Bull Confirmed If

Achieving an EPS of $0.40 or higher would confirm the bullish outlook and demonstrate strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.30 would signal potential issues with profitability and could lead to a sell-off.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.18%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect either strong performance or disappointing results.

Options are pricing ±9.2% while ACHC has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (6K)P/C Ratio: 2.71Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Acadia beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 5.2%, confirming the bullish sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of about 0.85%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on new facility openings and their expected impact on revenue.
2Any changes in patient admission trends compared to previous quarters.
3Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
4Insights into competitive pressures and how Acadia plans to address them.
5Future guidance on EPS and revenue expectations for the next quarter.