Equity Profile

ACHC

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.

Health CareHealth Care Facilities$2.8B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. operates in the health care sector, focusing on providing behavioral health services....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.48

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

$878M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ACHC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. operates in the health care sector, focusing on providing behavioral health services. As mental health awareness grows, Acadia plays a crucial role in addressing the increasing demand for mental health treatment facilities.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+28.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+3.69%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Acadia reported an EPS of $0.37, significantly beating the estimate of $0.28, which boosted the stock by 2.47% the next day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Acadia to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $0.48 and revenue of $878M. The company has a history of beating earnings estimates, which could lead to positive stock movement.

Bull Case

If Acadia exceeds the EPS estimate and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to sustain growth in a competitive market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.48

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$878M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Acadia's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.48?

A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction, given the company's history of exceeding earnings expectations.

What guidance will Acadia provide for future revenue growth?

Investors will be keen to understand management's outlook on revenue growth, especially in light of recent trends in the behavioral health sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Acadia's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for mental health services, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Acadia has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a potential for continued strong performance.

The behavioral health market is expanding, and Acadia's established presence positions it well to capture this growth.

Key Risk

If Acadia's revenue growth exceeds $890M, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Acadia's ability to maintain its growth trajectory amidst increasing competition and changing healthcare regulations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $885M, would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 or revenue falling short of $870M would signal potential challenges ahead.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.18%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.2% while ACHC has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (6K)P/C Ratio: 2.71Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Acadia beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.20% the next day, confirming bullish sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management offers cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

Should Acadia miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.85%, which could raise concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new facility openings or expansions.
2Insights into patient volume trends and demand for services.
3Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
4Details on any regulatory changes impacting the healthcare sector.
5Guidance on future revenue growth and market positioning.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. operates in the health care sector, focusing on providing behavioral health services....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.48

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

$878M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ACHC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+28.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+3.69%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Acadia exceeds the EPS estimate and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a significant stock price increase.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may raise concerns about its ability to sustain growth in a competitive market.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.48

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Revenue

$878M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and overall growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Acadia's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.48?

A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction, given the company's history of exceeding earnings expectations.

What guidance will Acadia provide for future revenue growth?

Investors will be keen to understand management's outlook on revenue growth, especially in light of recent trends in the behavioral health sector.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate Acadia's ability to capitalize on the growing demand for mental health services, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Acadia has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a potential for continued strong performance.

The behavioral health market is expanding, and Acadia's established presence positions it well to capture this growth.

Key Risk

If Acadia's revenue growth exceeds $890M, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating Acadia's ability to maintain its growth trajectory amidst increasing competition and changing healthcare regulations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $885M, would confirm strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 or revenue falling short of $870M would signal potential challenges ahead.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±9.18%

Historical Avg

±5.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±9.2% while ACHC has averaged ±5.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (6K)P/C Ratio: 2.71Puts (11K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Acadia beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 5.20% the next day, confirming bullish sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management offers cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors reassess future growth.

Miss

Should Acadia miss earnings expectations, history indicates a potential decline of about 0.85%, which could raise concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new facility openings or expansions.
2Insights into patient volume trends and demand for services.
3Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.
4Details on any regulatory changes impacting the healthcare sector.
5Guidance on future revenue growth and market positioning.