Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Jul 30, 2026
EPS actual
$1.14
EPS est.
$1.11
EPS surprise
+2.89%
1-day move
-2.46%
Agree Realty Corporation reported an EPS of $1.14, exceeding expectations slightly. However, the stock fell by 2.46% following the earnings report, indicating that investors may have been looking for more comprehensive guidance or revenue details, which were not provided.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.14 | N/A | +2.89% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
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Impl. Move
±14.1%
Agree Realty Corporation (ADC) is a real estate investment trust (REIT) that focuses on acquiring and managing retail properties. With a market cap of $9 billion, it plays a significant role in the retail sector, which is influenced by consumer spending trends and the overall health of the economy.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, ADC reported an EPS of $1.04, falling short of the expected $1.09, leading to a slight decline in stock price the following day. The company continues to navigate challenges in the retail sector.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
13%
Avg EPS surprise
-5.71%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.50%
Overall, expectations for ADC's upcoming earnings are mixed, with some investors hoping for a rebound in EPS after recent misses.
Bull case
If ADC can exceed EPS expectations and demonstrate solid revenue growth, it could signal a recovery in its operations and boost investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if ADC continues to miss EPS estimates and shows weak occupancy rates, it may raise concerns about its ability to sustain dividends and growth.
Key metrics to watch
EPS (Earnings Per Share)
Expected to be around $1.09.EPS is a critical measure of a company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.
Revenue Growth
Not available.Revenue growth indicates the company's ability to expand its operations and attract tenants, which is vital for a REIT.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and will it meet or exceed the $1.09 estimate?
Given the recent trend of missing EPS estimates, a positive surprise could restore investor confidence.
Q2
What is the current occupancy rate of ADC's properties?
Occupancy rates are crucial for revenue generation, and any decline could signal deeper issues in the retail market.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for ADC to rebound from its recent earnings misses, particularly if occupancy rates remain stable.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 3.54% move, but the stock has averaged only 0.83% over the last 8 quarters.
The recent trend of EPS misses may have already priced in negative sentiment, leaving room for a surprise upside.
Key risk
If ADC reports an EPS above $1.09, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is currently weighing ADC's ability to recover from recent earnings misses against the backdrop of a challenging retail environment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.09 or higher, along with stable or increasing occupancy rates.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.04 and a significant drop in occupancy rates.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.54%
Historical Avg
±1.1%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.54%, indicating some uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±3.5% while ADC has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
14.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Real Estate
Fade rate: 16 of 30 (53%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Real Estate in the last 2 years. 16 of 30 faded and 14 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.8%, with a raw directional average of +0.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ADC beats expectations, history suggests the stock could move up by around 0.93%, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await clearer guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.12%, further shaking investor confidence in ADC's growth prospects.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Occupancy Rate
A high occupancy rate reflects strong demand for the properties managed by ADC, impacting rental income.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jun 1, 2026 · disclosed Jul 7, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.