Equity Profile

ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Consumer StaplesAgricultural Products & Services$38.6B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is a global leader in agricultural products and services, focusing on processing and trading various crops. As part of the Consumer Staples sector, ADM plays a crucial role in food supply chains, making it significant for investors interested in agricultural trends and consumer demand.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenue.

$1.44

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$23.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+42.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ADM reported an EPS of $0.71, exceeding estimates by 8.07%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.83% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect ADM to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.44 and revenue of $23.1 billion. The market is closely watching for any surprises that could impact the stock price.

Bull Case

If ADM beats earnings expectations, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and demand, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations, it may signal underlying issues in sales or cost management, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.44

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenue.

Revenue

$23.1B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.44?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What is the revenue figure compared to the consensus of $23.1 billion?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market demand and the company's ability to grow sales, impacting future guidance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating ADM's ability to outperform due to strong demand for agricultural products, which could lead to higher revenue than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Recent earnings history shows a 75% beat rate, indicating strong performance potential.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

The agricultural sector has seen increased demand, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $24 billion, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating ADM's ability to maintain profitability amid fluctuating agricultural prices and demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.87%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.9% while ADM has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.7%

Calls (162K)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (85K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.5% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADM beats expectations, history suggests a potential average stock move of +2.52%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average move of +2.37% when expectations are not met.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on agricultural pricing trends and their impact on revenue.
2Management's outlook on demand for key products in the upcoming quarters.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Discussion on any new market opportunities or expansions.
5Clarification on any changes in supply chain dynamics.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenue.

$1.44

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$23.1B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+42.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ADM reported an EPS of $0.71, exceeding estimates by 8.07%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.83% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect ADM to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $1.44 and revenue of $23.1 billion. The market is closely watching for any surprises that could impact the stock price.

Bull Case

If ADM beats earnings expectations, it could indicate strong operational efficiency and demand, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations, it may signal underlying issues in sales or cost management, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.44

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenue.

Revenue

$23.1B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.44?

A beat on EPS could indicate stronger profitability and operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor confidence.

What is the revenue figure compared to the consensus of $23.1 billion?

Revenue performance will provide insights into market demand and the company's ability to grow sales, impacting future guidance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating ADM's ability to outperform due to strong demand for agricultural products, which could lead to higher revenue than expected.

Supporting Evidence

Recent earnings history shows a 75% beat rate, indicating strong performance potential.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

The agricultural sector has seen increased demand, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue exceeds $24 billion, it could significantly shift market sentiment and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating ADM's ability to maintain profitability amid fluctuating agricultural prices and demand.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.50 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.20 would raise concerns about profitability and market demand.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.87%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.9% while ADM has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.7%

Calls (162K)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (85K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADM beats expectations, history suggests a potential average stock move of +2.52%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average move of +2.37% when expectations are not met.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on agricultural pricing trends and their impact on revenue.
2Management's outlook on demand for key products in the upcoming quarters.
3Insights into cost management strategies and their effectiveness.
4Discussion on any new market opportunities or expansions.
5Clarification on any changes in supply chain dynamics.