Equity Profile

ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Consumer StaplesAgricultural Products & Services$39.0B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is a global leader in agricultural products and services, focusing on processing and distributing food and feed ingredients. As a significant player in the consumer staples sector, ADM's performance is closely tied to agricultural commodity prices and global food demand, making it a key company to watch amid ongoing supply chain challenges and changing consumer preferences.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company managed costs and revenues in the face of market conditions.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into the demand for ADM's products and its ability to capture market share in a competitive landscape.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+42.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ADM reported an EPS of $0.71, exceeding expectations by 8.07%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.83% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of ADM's upcoming earnings report, particularly given the company's recent performance and the agricultural sector's dynamics.

Bull Case

If ADM continues to beat EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products and effective cost management.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining margins due to rising input costs, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How is ADM managing its operating margins in the current inflationary environment?

Understanding margin management will provide insights into the company's operational efficiency and ability to sustain profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating ADM's ability to manage costs effectively amid rising agricultural prices, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

ADM has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Insider selling activity could suggest confidence in the company's performance, despite the negative sentiment.

Key Risk

If operating margins show resilience despite input cost pressures, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus will be on how well ADM navigates cost pressures while maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.75 or higher would confirm strong earnings performance and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.65 would raise concerns about profitability and operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.87%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.9% while ADM has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.7%

Calls (162K)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (85K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Staples in the last 2 years. 18 of 27 (67%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.5% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$5.0M

69,106 sh

2 insiders

Net

$5.0M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Senior Vice PresidentCuddy Christopher M
$2.6M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, potentially around a 2.5% increase on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 2.37% following earnings misses.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies in response to inflation.
2Insights into demand trends for ADM's key products.
3Comments on supply chain stability and its impact on operations.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations amid changing market conditions.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the agricultural sector.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well the company managed costs and revenues in the face of market conditions.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will provide insight into the demand for ADM's products and its ability to capture market share in a competitive landscape.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADM Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

63%

Avg EPS Surprise

+42.95%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.38%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ADM reported an EPS of $0.71, exceeding expectations by 8.07%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 3.83% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of ADM's upcoming earnings report, particularly given the company's recent performance and the agricultural sector's dynamics.

Bull Case

If ADM continues to beat EPS expectations and shows strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its products and effective cost management.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining margins due to rising input costs, it could lead to a negative reaction from investors.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and any significant deviation from expectations could impact investor sentiment.

How is ADM managing its operating margins in the current inflationary environment?

Understanding margin management will provide insights into the company's operational efficiency and ability to sustain profitability.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating ADM's ability to manage costs effectively amid rising agricultural prices, which could lead to better-than-expected margins.

Supporting Evidence

ADM has a strong track record of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations for volatility.

Insider selling activity could suggest confidence in the company's performance, despite the negative sentiment.

Key Risk

If operating margins show resilience despite input cost pressures, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus will be on how well ADM navigates cost pressures while maintaining profitability.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.75 or higher would confirm strong earnings performance and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.65 would raise concerns about profitability and operational challenges.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.87%

Historical Avg

±2.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.9% while ADM has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

26.7%

Calls (162K)P/C Ratio: 0.87Puts (85K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Staples

n=30

Fade rate: 9 of 27 (33%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$5.0M

69,106 sh

2 insiders

Net

$5.0M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Senior Vice PresidentCuddy Christopher M
$2.6M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ADM beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, potentially around a 2.5% increase on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting an average drop of around 2.37% following earnings misses.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

0 buys·1 sell

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$50,001.00–$100,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on cost management strategies in response to inflation.
2Insights into demand trends for ADM's key products.
3Comments on supply chain stability and its impact on operations.
4Guidance on future revenue expectations amid changing market conditions.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the agricultural sector.