Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$2.64
EPS est.
$2.59
EPS surprise
+2.09%
1-day move
+3.48%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) provides human resource and employment services, helping businesses manage payroll, talent, and compliance. As a leader in the industrial sector, ADP plays a crucial role in workforce management, which is increasingly important as companies adapt to changing labor markets and technological advancements.
Last quarter
In Q3-2026, ADP reported an EPS of $3.37, exceeding expectations by 2.62%. The stock reacted positively, rising 7.98% the next day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+2.73%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.02%
Overall, expectations for ADP's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors hoping for continued EPS growth and strong revenue performance.
Bull case
If ADP beats EPS expectations again, it could signal strong operational efficiency and client retention, driving stock prices higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about market competition and growth sustainability.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and will it exceed the previous quarter's $3.37?
Given ADP's strong track record of beating EPS estimates, this figure will be crucial for investor confidence and stock performance.
Q2
How is ADP addressing competition in the HR services market?
With increasing competition, understanding ADP's strategies for maintaining market share will be key to assessing future growth potential.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating ADP's ability to leverage technology for growth, particularly in payroll automation and compliance services.
Supporting evidence
ADP's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational efficiency.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages suggest, indicating potential for a significant reaction.
ADP's commitment to technology upgrades could provide a competitive edge that is not fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If ADP's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating ADP's ability to sustain growth in a competitive landscape, making these thresholds critical.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $3.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.20 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about growth and profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.77%
Historical Avg
±3.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±11.8% while ADP has averaged ±3.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
33.6%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 5 of 24 (21%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 19 of 24 (79%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of +1.6% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
91.71%
of float
Insider
0.14%
of float
Holders
2,938
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
36,156,415 sh · $9.5B
9.12%
1.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ADP beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.67%, confirming strong operational performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious, the stock may see limited movement, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.
Miss
If ADP misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.89%, indicating investor disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
3
1 buy·2 sells
Members
2
House only
Est. Notional
$3,003.00–$45,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
26,095,828 sh · $6.9B
6.59%
-0.2%
State Street Corporation
20,389,160 sh · $5.4B
5.15%
5.5%
Invesco Ltd.
13,562,578 sh · $3.6B
3.42%
7.1%
Charles Schwab Investment Management, Inc.
12,729,777 sh · $3.4B
3.21%
10.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
1 trade
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Aug 14, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Jun 16, 2026 · disclosed Jul 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Traded Apr 14, 2026 · disclosed May 8, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.