Equity Profile

ADPT

ADAPTIVE BIOTECHNOLO

Health CareLife Sciences Tools & Services$2.7B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation specializes in using the immune system to develop diagnostics and therapeutics. As a player in the healthcare sector, it focuses on life sciences tools and services, which are increasingly important for personalized medicine and disease management.

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Investors will be keen to see if the company can show significant revenue growth, indicating demand for its products.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADPT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.94%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.91%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, Adaptive Biotechnologies reported an EPS of -$0.13, beating estimates by 16.13%. However, the stock fell by nearly 5% the following day, indicating market disappointment despite the positive surprise.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has consistently beaten EPS estimates but has not provided revenue guidance. Investors are uncertain about future growth prospects.

Bull Case

If Adaptive can continue to beat EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround and increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to demonstrate revenue growth or provides weak guidance, it may lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the revenue growth rate be for this quarter?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to scale its operations and meet market demand.

Will management provide any guidance on future earnings?

Guidance can significantly influence investor sentiment and expectations for the company's performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for revenue growth due to recent advancements in Adaptive's technology.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating operational strength.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting heightened expectations.

Insider selling could indicate confidence in the company's future performance despite recent stock declines.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to translate its innovations into tangible revenue growth.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue growth rate of 15% or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue decline or stagnant growth would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±37.62%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±37.6% while ADPT has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

53.6%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.31Puts (400)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$27.3M

2,018,897 sh

8 insiders

Net

$27.3M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 52 open-market trades

President and COORUBINSTEIN JULIE
$10.4M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Adaptive beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.96% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors digest the information.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.97%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or partnerships.
2Details on customer acquisition and retention rates.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.
4Insights into research and development progress.
5Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Revenue Growth

Investors will be keen to see if the company can show significant revenue growth, indicating demand for its products.

N/A

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge the company's financial health.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ADPT Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+37.94%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.91%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as the company has consistently beaten EPS estimates but has not provided revenue guidance. Investors are uncertain about future growth prospects.

Bull Case

If Adaptive can continue to beat EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround and increased investor confidence.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to demonstrate revenue growth or provides weak guidance, it may lead to further declines in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the revenue growth rate be for this quarter?

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to scale its operations and meet market demand.

Will management provide any guidance on future earnings?

Guidance can significantly influence investor sentiment and expectations for the company's performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for revenue growth due to recent advancements in Adaptive's technology.

Supporting Evidence

The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating operational strength.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting heightened expectations.

Insider selling could indicate confidence in the company's future performance despite recent stock declines.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around the company's ability to translate its innovations into tangible revenue growth.

Bull Confirmed If

A revenue growth rate of 15% or higher would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

A revenue decline or stagnant growth would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±37.62%

Historical Avg

±2.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±37.6% while ADPT has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.8%

30d HV

53.6%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.31Puts (400)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$27.3M

2,018,897 sh

8 insiders

Net

$27.3M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 52 open-market trades

President and COORUBINSTEIN JULIE
$10.4M
Net selling

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Adaptive beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.96% on the first day.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may experience minimal movement as investors digest the information.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.97%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches or partnerships.
2Details on customer acquisition and retention rates.
3Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.
4Insights into research and development progress.
5Any commentary on cost management and operational efficiency.