Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 29, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.25
EPS est.
$-0.13
EPS surprise
-92.31%
1-day move
+0.18%
Adaptive Biotechnologies reported a larger-than-expected loss per share, which may raise concerns among investors about profitability. However, the stock saw a slight increase of 0.18%, indicating some investors may be looking beyond the immediate earnings miss. The lack of revenue data and guidance adds uncertainty to the company's outlook.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.25 | $-0.10 | -92.31% |
| Revenue | N/A | $72M | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Adaptive Biotechnologies Corporation focuses on using advanced technology to analyze the immune system, which is crucial for developing personalized medicine. As a player in the health care sector, its innovations can impact disease diagnosis and treatment, particularly in oncology and autoimmune disorders.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Adaptive Biotechnologies reported an EPS of -$0.13, which was better than analysts' expectations of -$0.15. However, the stock fell by nearly 5% the following day, indicating market disappointment despite the earnings surprise.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+26.08%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.61%
Analysts expect Adaptive Biotechnologies to report a slight improvement in EPS and revenue this quarter. The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, which may lead to positive sentiment if they continue this trend.
Bull case
If the company beats EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong demand for its services and lead to a significant stock price increase, supported by its history of positive surprises.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to a sharp decline in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
-$0.10Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
$72MRevenue growth indicates demand for the company's products and services, which is vital for assessing its market position.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Adaptive Biotechnologies achieve an EPS of better than -$0.10?
This figure is critical as it directly impacts investor sentiment and could influence stock performance significantly.
Q2
How does the company plan to drive revenue growth beyond the expected $72M?
Understanding the company's strategy for revenue generation is essential for assessing its long-term viability and market position.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the company's ability to leverage its technology for revenue growth, given its recent history of positive surprises.
Supporting evidence
Adaptive Biotechnologies has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance than anticipated.
The stock has shown resilience despite negative reactions in the past, suggesting underlying strength.
Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, reflecting uncertainty that could be resolved positively.
Key risk
If the company reports revenue significantly above $72M, it could challenge the consensus view on its growth trajectory.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching these metrics to gauge the company's performance and outlook in a competitive health care landscape.
Bull confirmed if
A revenue figure exceeding $72M would confirm strong demand and growth potential.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than -$0.10 would raise concerns about the company's profitability and future prospects.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±37.62%
Historical Avg
±2.4%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect a volatile reaction to the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±37.6% while ADPT has averaged ±2.4% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
53.6%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$2.9M
104,522 sh
3 insiders
Net
$2.9M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 14 open-market trades
$2.0M
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
99.50%
of float
Insider
1.29%
of float
Holders
423
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Viking Global Investors, L.P.
29,993,708 sh · $788.2M
18.79%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Adaptive Biotechnologies beats estimates, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.61%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around 4.97%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$757,696.66
Net selling
$193,320.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Oct 1, 2026 · @ $28.61
18,698 sh
$534,949.78
Oct 2, 2026 · @ $28.13
11,881 sh
$334,212.53
Oct 7, 2026 · @ $26.40
11,881 sh
$313,658.40
Oct 8, 2026 · @ $25.66
11,881 sh
$304,866.46
Oct 6, 2026 · @ $27.36
9,381 sh
$256,664.16
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackrock Inc.
15,139,159 sh · $397.9M
9.49%
13.8%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
6,403,587 sh · $168.3M
4.01%
5.1%
Wellington Management Group, LLP
5,911,366 sh · $155.4M
3.70%
53.3%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
5,476,231 sh · $143.9M
3.43%
21.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.