Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Aug 27, 2026
EPS actual
$3.30
EPS est.
$2.35
EPS surprise
+40.31%
1-day move
+6.21%
Autodesk's strong Q2 results, particularly the better-than-expected EPS, led to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising 6.21%. The company is benefiting from solid revenue growth and the strategic acquisition of MaintainX, which is expected to enhance future performance. Overall, the results indicate a strong outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.30 | N/A | +40.31% |
| Revenue Growth YoY | 16% | N/A | N/A |
| Non-GAAP Operating Margin | 41% | N/A | N/A |
| GAAP Operating Margin | 29% | N/A | N/A |
| Free Cash Flow Guidance | $2.725B - $2.75B | N/A | N/A |
Management expressed confidence in the company's growth trajectory, highlighting strong revenue growth and the positive impact of the MaintainX acquisition. They emphasized their focus on project intelligence through design, make, and operate convergence.
The strong Q2 performance has led us to raise our full-year billings and revenue guidance.
We expect MaintainX to contribute approximately $60 million to revenue in the second half of FY27.
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Est. EPS
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Est. Rev
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Impl. Move
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Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) is a leader in application software, providing tools for design and engineering across various industries. With a focus on innovation in areas like architecture and manufacturing, Autodesk plays a crucial role in the digital transformation of design processes, which is increasingly important as industries adopt more advanced technologies.
Last quarter
In Q1-2027, Autodesk reported an EPS of $2.99, significantly exceeding estimates by over 41%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.67% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+49.73%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.66%
Overall, the market is cautiously optimistic about Autodesk's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.
Bull case
If Autodesk continues its trend of exceeding EPS expectations, it could signal robust demand for its products, leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to a sharp decline in stock value, especially given the high implied volatility.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Expectations are not available.EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Autodesk is managing costs and generating income.
Revenue Growth
Expectations are not available.Revenue growth will indicate demand for Autodesk's software and services, reflecting overall business health.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the EPS for Q2-2027?
Given Autodesk's history of beating EPS estimates, the market will closely watch this figure to gauge ongoing profitability.
Q2
How is the customer retention rate trending?
A strong retention rate is crucial for subscription models, and any decline could raise concerns about future revenue stability.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of Autodesk's recent investments in AI and cloud technologies, which could drive higher customer engagement and retention.
Supporting evidence
Historically, Autodesk has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting a potential for continued strong performance.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating that traders expect significant developments.
Recent product launches have received positive feedback, which could translate into better-than-expected customer retention.
Key risk
If customer retention rates show a significant drop, it could undermine the bullish narrative surrounding Autodesk's growth.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Autodesk can maintain its strong growth trajectory amid increasing competition and economic pressures.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $3.10 or higher would confirm strong profitability and growth prospects.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.80 could indicate potential issues with demand or cost management.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.74%
Historical Avg
±2.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect notable volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.7% while ADSK has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
34.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Autodesk beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 1.06%, confirming strong demand and management effectiveness.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.
Miss
If Autodesk misses expectations, the stock could drop, with historical patterns suggesting a potential decline of around 1.46%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Customer Retention Rate
Expectations are not available.High retention rates suggest customer satisfaction and loyalty, which are vital for subscription-based models.