Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Nov 27, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±13.9%
EPS beat rate
100%
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±20.4%
Autodesk, Inc. (ADSK) is a leading software company that provides design and engineering solutions for various industries, including architecture, construction, and manufacturing. With a market cap of $49 billion, Autodesk is at the forefront of digital transformation in design, leveraging trends like cloud computing and automation to enhance productivity and collaboration.
Last quarter
In Q2-2027, Autodesk reported an EPS of $3.30, significantly exceeding estimates by over 40%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 6.21% the following day, reflecting strong investor confidence.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+49.73%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.66%
Overall, Wall Street is optimistic about Autodesk's upcoming earnings, expecting continued strong performance based on previous results.
Bull case
If Autodesk maintains its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could lead to a significant stock price increase, as investors reward strong performance.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides cautious guidance, it may lead to a sharp decline in stock price, especially given the high implied volatility.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Expected to be around $3.30.EPS is a key indicator of profitability, and Autodesk has consistently beaten expectations in recent quarters.
Revenue Growth
Expected to show strong growth year-over-year.Revenue growth will indicate how well Autodesk is expanding its customer base and market share, especially in a competitive landscape.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed $3.30, continuing the trend of strong earnings surprises?
A higher EPS would reinforce investor confidence and could lead to a positive stock reaction.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding subscription revenue growth?
Guidance on subscription revenue is crucial for understanding future growth potential and market positioning.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the impact of Autodesk's recent investments in AI and cloud technology, which could drive higher-than-expected subscription growth.
Supporting evidence
Autodesk has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger operational performance than anticipated.
The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Recent trends in the industry show increasing demand for cloud-based solutions, which Autodesk is well-positioned to capitalize on.
Key risk
If subscription revenue growth exceeds 20%, it could significantly alter the market's perception of Autodesk's growth trajectory.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Autodesk can sustain its high growth rates amidst increasing competition and market challenges.
Bull confirmed if
If Autodesk reports an EPS of $3.50 or higher, it would confirm strong operational performance and growth.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $3.00 would raise concerns about profitability and future growth prospects.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.39%
Historical Avg
±2.1%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±13.9% while ADSK has averaged ±2.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
51.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Autodesk beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.66% on the day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.
Miss
If Autodesk misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline, with an average drop of around 1.66% based on previous misses.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Subscription Revenue
Expected to reflect continued adoption of their cloud services.As a software-as-a-service company, subscription revenue is crucial for Autodesk's recurring income and long-term growth.