Utilities·Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders·$10.3B
AES Corp is a utility company that generates and distributes electricity. With a market cap of $10 billion, it plays a crucial role in the energy sector, focusing on independent power production and energy trading, which are increasingly important as the world shifts towards renewable energy sources.
EPS
Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
Revenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
1Q
EPS Beat Rate
75%
Avg EPS Surprise
+44.42%
Avg Stock Reaction
-0.26%
In the last quarter, AES Corp reported an EPS of $2.14, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the stock dropped 17.77% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the strong earnings.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts expect AES Corp to report an EPS of $0.37 this quarter, with revenue projected at $3.3 billion. The stock's recent volatility suggests mixed feelings among investors about future performance.
Bull Case
If AES can beat the EPS estimate and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it may regain investor confidence and see a positive stock reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses earnings expectations or provides weak guidance, it could lead to further declines in stock price.
EPS
0.37Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
3.3BRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will AES meet or exceed the consensus EPS estimate of $0.37?
A strong earnings report could restore investor confidence, while a miss could lead to further declines.
Q2
What guidance will management provide regarding future revenue growth?
Management's outlook on revenue will be crucial for assessing the company's growth trajectory and market position.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate AES's ability to leverage recent investments in renewable energy, which could drive stronger-than-expected growth.
Supporting Evidence
The company has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a larger potential move than historical averages, indicating market anticipation of significant news.
Recent trends in energy demand may not be fully reflected in current analyst estimates.
Key Risk
If AES demonstrates robust growth in renewable energy segments, it could challenge current market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a period of mixed results, and investor sentiment is highly sensitive to earnings surprises.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.45 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.26 would signal significant challenges and likely lead to a negative market reaction.
Implied Move
±17.45%
Historical Avg
±4.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±17.4% while AES has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If AES beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 0.05% on average, confirming a positive trend.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction, driven by management's commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.91%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about the company's performance.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
VERIZON COMMUNICATIO
Apr 27, 2026