Equity Profile

AFL

AFLAC INC

FinancialsLife & Health Insurance$60.2B

Apr29Wed

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Aflac Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.07%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.75	$1.80	-2.89%
Revenue	N/A	$4.3B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Aflac Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.07%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$1.75	$1.80	-2.89%
Revenue	N/A	$4.3B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.

What It Means

Aflac's earnings report showed a slight miss on EPS expectations, which may raise concerns among investors about the company's performance. The stock reacted minimally, declining just 0.07%. Without additional context from management commentary or guidance, investors may remain cautious as they assess future performance.

Company Snapshot

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is a leading provider of supplemental insurance in the U.S. and Japan, focusing on life and health insurance products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Aflac is managing its costs and revenues this quarter.

$1.80

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales from its insurance products, which is critical for assessing growth.

$4.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is a leading provider of supplemental insurance in the U.S. and Japan, focusing on life and health insurance products. With a market cap of $60 billion, Aflac plays a crucial role in helping individuals manage unexpected medical expenses and financial risks, making it an important player in the financial sector.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.74%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.51%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4-2025, Aflac reported an EPS of $1.57, which was below the expected $1.71, leading to a slight decline in stock price the following day. This quarter's performance may set the tone for future growth, especially after a strong Q3-2025 where they beat expectations significantly.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Aflac's upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue growth. The consensus estimates suggest a recovery from the previous quarter's miss.

Bull Case

If Aflac can deliver an EPS above $1.80 and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust recovery and increased confidence in their business model.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Aflac fails to meet the EPS estimate or shows stagnant revenue, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and future growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.80

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Aflac is managing its costs and revenues this quarter.

Revenue

$4.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales from its insurance products, which is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Aflac's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.80?

A higher EPS would indicate improved profitability and could boost investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the expected $4.3 billion?

Revenue growth is crucial for Aflac's long-term success, and any shortfall could raise concerns about its market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Aflac's ability to rebound from recent misses, particularly given the strong performance in Q3-2025.

Supporting Evidence

Aflac has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate in the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Insider selling activity may indicate a lack of confidence from key stakeholders.

Key Risk

If Aflac reports an EPS below $1.75, it could lead to a significant reevaluation of growth expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report will be critical in determining Aflac's growth trajectory and investor sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.85 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $4.4 billion, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.75 and revenue below $4.2 billion would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.98%

Historical Avg

±0.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a nearly 3% move in either direction, indicating that investors expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.0% while AFL has averaged ±0.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

14.8%

Calls (193K)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (79K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 10 of 28 (36%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 18 of 28 (64%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.6%, with a raw directional average of -0.7% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$9.8M

86,155 sh

1 insider

Net

$9.8M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Aflac beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.66% on the next trading day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

If Aflac misses earnings expectations, the stock could decline, with historical averages suggesting a drop of around 0.66%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on Aflac's market share in the supplemental insurance space.
2Insights into the impact of recent regulatory changes on Aflac's operations.
3Management's outlook on future growth and any new product launches.
4Comments on the competitive landscape and how Aflac plans to differentiate itself.
5Details on expense management and cost-cutting measures.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is a leading provider of supplemental insurance in the U.S. and Japan, focusing on life and health insurance products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Aflac is managing its costs and revenues this quarter.

$1.80

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales from its insurance products, which is critical for assessing growth.

$4.3B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+8.74%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.51%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Aflac's upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue growth. The consensus estimates suggest a recovery from the previous quarter's miss.

Bull Case

If Aflac can deliver an EPS above $1.80 and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust recovery and increased confidence in their business model.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Aflac fails to meet the EPS estimate or shows stagnant revenue, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and future growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$1.80

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Aflac is managing its costs and revenues this quarter.

Revenue

$4.3B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales from its insurance products, which is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Aflac's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.80?

A higher EPS would indicate improved profitability and could boost investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss.

What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the expected $4.3 billion?

Revenue growth is crucial for Aflac's long-term success, and any shortfall could raise concerns about its market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Aflac's ability to rebound from recent misses, particularly given the strong performance in Q3-2025.

Supporting Evidence

Aflac has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate in the last eight quarters.

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.

Insider selling activity may indicate a lack of confidence from key stakeholders.

Key Risk

If Aflac reports an EPS below $1.75, it could lead to a significant reevaluation of growth expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The upcoming earnings report will be critical in determining Aflac's growth trajectory and investor sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.85 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $4.4 billion, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.75 and revenue below $4.2 billion would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.98%

Historical Avg

±0.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a nearly 3% move in either direction, indicating that investors expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±3.0% while AFL has averaged ±0.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

14.8%

Calls (193K)P/C Ratio: 0.17Puts (79K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 10 of 28 (36%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$9.8M

86,155 sh

1 insider

Net

$9.8M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Aflac beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.66% on the next trading day, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

If Aflac misses earnings expectations, the stock could decline, with historical averages suggesting a drop of around 0.66%.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on Aflac's market share in the supplemental insurance space.
2Insights into the impact of recent regulatory changes on Aflac's operations.
3Management's outlook on future growth and any new product launches.
4Comments on the competitive landscape and how Aflac plans to differentiate itself.
5Details on expense management and cost-cutting measures.