Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$1.75
EPS est.
$1.80
EPS surprise
-2.89%
1-day move
-0.07%
Aflac's earnings report showed a slight miss on EPS expectations, which may raise concerns among investors about the company's performance. The stock reacted minimally, declining just 0.07%. Without additional context from management commentary or guidance, investors may remain cautious as they assess future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.75 | $1.80 | -2.89% |
| Revenue | N/A | $4.3B | N/A |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Aflac Incorporated (AFL) is a leading provider of supplemental insurance in the U.S. and Japan, focusing on life and health insurance products. With a market cap of $60 billion, Aflac plays a crucial role in helping individuals manage unexpected medical expenses and financial risks, making it an important player in the financial sector.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Aflac reported an EPS of $1.57, which was below the expected $1.71, leading to a slight decline in stock price the following day. This quarter's performance may set the tone for future growth, especially after a strong Q3-2025 where they beat expectations significantly.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
+6.69%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.62%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Aflac's upcoming earnings, expecting a rebound in EPS and revenue growth. The consensus estimates suggest a recovery from the previous quarter's miss.
Bull case
If Aflac can deliver an EPS above $1.80 and show strong revenue growth, it could signal a robust recovery and increased confidence in their business model.
Bear case
Conversely, if Aflac fails to meet the EPS estimate or shows stagnant revenue, it may raise concerns about its competitive position and future growth prospects.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.80Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Aflac is managing its costs and revenues this quarter.
Revenue
$4.3BTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales from its insurance products, which is critical for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Aflac's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $1.80?
A higher EPS would indicate improved profitability and could boost investor confidence after the previous quarter's miss.
Q2
What are the revenue figures for this quarter, and how do they compare to the expected $4.3 billion?
Revenue growth is crucial for Aflac's long-term success, and any shortfall could raise concerns about its market position.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating Aflac's ability to rebound from recent misses, particularly given the strong performance in Q3-2025.
Supporting evidence
Aflac has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate in the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting heightened expectations.
Insider selling activity may indicate a lack of confidence from key stakeholders.
Key risk
If Aflac reports an EPS below $1.75, it could lead to a significant reevaluation of growth expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The upcoming earnings report will be critical in determining Aflac's growth trajectory and investor sentiment.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $1.85 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $4.4 billion, would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $1.75 and revenue below $4.2 billion would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±2.98%
Historical Avg
±0.6%
The options market is pricing in a nearly 3% move in either direction, indicating that investors expect some volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±3.0% while AFL has averaged ±0.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
14.8%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials
Fade rate: 10 of 28 (36%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 18 of 28 (64%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.6%, with a raw directional average of -0.7% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$60.3M
518,151 sh
3 insiders
Net
$60.3M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 73 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
60.09%
of float
Insider
10.89%
of float
Holders
2,126
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.
50,898,490 sh · $5.7B
10.15%
-2.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Aflac beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.66% on the next trading day, confirming a positive outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance from management.
Miss
If Aflac misses earnings expectations, the stock could decline, with historical averages suggesting a drop of around 0.66%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$58.7M
Net selling
$1.6M
Net selling
$74,460.00
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Sep 3, 2026 · @ $118.49
20,000 sh
$2.4M
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14,850 sh
$1.7M
Aug 14, 2026 · @ $121.43
13,980 sh
$1.7M
Aug 18, 2026 · @ $121.91
13,610 sh
$1.7M
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13,500 sh
$1.6M
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
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13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.