Equity Profile

AFRM

Affirm Holdings, Inc.

FinancialsTransaction & Payment Processing Services$21.3B

Aug27Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides point-of-sale financing and buy now, pay later services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and how well it is managing costs relative to its revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how well Affirm is expanding its customer base and increasing transaction volume.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AFRM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides point-of-sale financing and buy now, pay later services. As a player in the financial sector, it caters to consumer spending trends, allowing customers to make purchases and pay for them over time, which has gained popularity in recent years.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+90.51%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.01%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Affirm reported an EPS of $0.30, significantly beating expectations of $0.17. The company has shown a strong trend of positive surprises in its earnings over the past quarters.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to innovate in point-of-sale financing solutions.
Expand partnerships with retailers to increase transaction volume.
Focus on improving customer experience and retention.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Affirm has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters. Investors are keen to see if this trend continues and how it impacts revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Affirm can demonstrate strong customer growth and maintain its profitability, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or shows signs of slowing customer growth, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the strong EPS surprises in the past, this quarter's EPS will be critical in determining investor sentiment and stock performance.

How many new customers has Affirm acquired in the last quarter?

Customer growth is essential for future revenue, and any slowdown could raise concerns about market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Affirm's customer growth, as recent trends indicate a shift towards more consumers using buy now, pay later services.

Supporting Evidence

Affirm has consistently exceeded EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected demand.

The options market is pricing in significant volatility, suggesting that investors anticipate a major shift in sentiment.

Recent consumer spending data shows an increase in online purchases, which could benefit Affirm.

Key Risk

If customer growth exceeds expectations, it could shift the narrative towards a more favorable outlook for the company.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Affirm can sustain its growth trajectory and profitability amid increasing competition in the financial technology space.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings per share exceeding $0.35 would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings per share below $0.20 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±31.9%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a substantial move, indicating that investors expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±29.3% while AFRM has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

53.2%

Calls (1.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.43Puts (857K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$110,000.00

2,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$110,000.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Affirm beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.1%, confirming ongoing strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

If Affirm misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.3%, raising concerns about the company's growth strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new partnerships with retailers.
2Insights into customer acquisition strategies and metrics.
3Management's outlook on the competitive landscape.
4Details on any changes to service offerings or technology enhancements.
5Comments on macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Affirm Holdings, Inc. is a financial technology company that provides point-of-sale financing and buy now, pay later services....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and how well it is managing costs relative to its revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate how well Affirm is expanding its customer base and increasing transaction volume.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AFRM Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

100%

Avg EPS Surprise

+90.51%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.01%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Affirm reported an EPS of $0.30, significantly beating expectations of $0.17. The company has shown a strong trend of positive surprises in its earnings over the past quarters.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to innovate in point-of-sale financing solutions.
Expand partnerships with retailers to increase transaction volume.
Focus on improving customer experience and retention.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Affirm has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters. Investors are keen to see if this trend continues and how it impacts revenue growth.

Bull Case

If Affirm can demonstrate strong customer growth and maintain its profitability, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

On the other hand, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or shows signs of slowing customer growth, it could lead to a significant drop in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?

Given the strong EPS surprises in the past, this quarter's EPS will be critical in determining investor sentiment and stock performance.

How many new customers has Affirm acquired in the last quarter?

Customer growth is essential for future revenue, and any slowdown could raise concerns about market demand.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for Affirm's customer growth, as recent trends indicate a shift towards more consumers using buy now, pay later services.

Supporting Evidence

Affirm has consistently exceeded EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected demand.

The options market is pricing in significant volatility, suggesting that investors anticipate a major shift in sentiment.

Recent consumer spending data shows an increase in online purchases, which could benefit Affirm.

Key Risk

If customer growth exceeds expectations, it could shift the narrative towards a more favorable outlook for the company.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Affirm can sustain its growth trajectory and profitability amid increasing competition in the financial technology space.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings per share exceeding $0.35 would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings per share below $0.20 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential issues with profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±31.9%

Historical Avg

±3.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a substantial move, indicating that investors expect significant volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±29.3% while AFRM has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

53.2%

Calls (1.2M)P/C Ratio: 0.43Puts (857K)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$110,000.00

2,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$110,000.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Affirm beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.1%, confirming ongoing strong demand.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess growth prospects.

Miss

If Affirm misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.3%, raising concerns about the company's growth strategy.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new partnerships with retailers.
2Insights into customer acquisition strategies and metrics.
3Management's outlook on the competitive landscape.
4Details on any changes to service offerings or technology enhancements.
5Comments on macroeconomic factors affecting consumer spending.