Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$0.00
EPS est.
$-0.04
EPS surprise
+100.00%
1-day move
-4.23%
Alkermes reported an EPS of $0.00, which was a surprise given the lack of consensus estimates. However, the stock reacted negatively, dropping 4.23%. This decline may reflect investor concerns about the lack of revenue information and guidance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.00 | N/A | +100.00% |
| Revenue | — | N/A | — |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Alkermes plc (ALKS) is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative medicines for people with serious mental health conditions and addiction. With a market cap of $8 billion, Alkermes plays a crucial role in the healthcare sector, particularly in addressing unmet medical needs in psychiatry and addiction treatment.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, Alkermes reported an EPS of -$0.40, which was better than analysts' expectations of -$0.57, resulting in a positive stock reaction of +6.09% the following day. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+31.51%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.24%
Overall, expectations for Alkermes are mixed, with some investors hopeful for continued improvement in earnings and revenue, while others remain cautious due to the lack of guidance and recent performance volatility.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on the potential for Alkermes to exceed EPS expectations again, driven by strong demand for its products and effective cost management.
Bear case
Conversely, the pessimistic outlook is based on concerns about the sustainability of recent earnings surprises and the absence of clear revenue guidance, which could lead to disappointment.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given the company's recent history of EPS surprises, this figure will be critical in determining market sentiment and stock movement.
Q2
What insights can management provide on revenue growth and product demand?
Understanding revenue trends will help investors assess the company's growth trajectory and market position.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Alkermes' ability to leverage its recent product developments, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Alkermes has a history of exceeding EPS expectations, with a 75% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing a significant move of 17.54%, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility that may not align with current consensus views.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is under scrutiny as investors weigh the potential for continued earnings surprises against the backdrop of uncertain revenue guidance.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $-0.30 or better would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-0.50 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±17.54%
Historical Avg
±5.0%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of approximately 17.54%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±17.5% while ALKS has averaged ±5.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.5%
30d HV
39.7%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$3.8M
76,150 sh
4 insiders
Net
$3.8M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 8 open-market trades
$279,919.08
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
107.45%
of float
Insider
1.40%
of float
Holders
569
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
29,235,739 sh · $1.2B
17.43%
3.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Alkermes beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +3.49%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors digest management commentary.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -0.37%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$860,094.00
Net selling
$372,936.74
Net selling
$2.2M
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Aug 3, 2026 · @ $50.35
44,472 sh
$2.2M
Aug 3, 2026 · @ $48.58
9,000 sh
$437,220.00
Sep 1, 2026 · @ $46.99
9,000 sh
$422,874.00
Aug 17, 2026 · @ $49.19
6,912 sh
$339,967.41
Aug 3, 2026 · @ $48.58
2,034 sh
$98,811.72
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Baker Bros. Advisors, LP
10,012,267 sh · $415.0M
5.97%
Flat
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
9,490,818 sh · $393.3M
5.66%
-0.2%
State Street Corporation
9,160,575 sh · $379.7M
5.46%
-3.2%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
7,515,025 sh · $311.5M
4.48%
1.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 30, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.