Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Apr 29, 2026
EPS actual
$10.65
EPS est.
$7.43
EPS surprise
+43.26%
1-day move
-1.88%
Allstate reported a strong earnings per share that significantly exceeded expectations, indicating better-than-anticipated profitability. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.88%. This could suggest that investors were looking for more comprehensive revenue details or guidance, which were not provided.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $10.65 | $7.24 | +43.26% |
| Revenue | N/A | $17.3B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
The Allstate Corporation is a major player in the property and casualty insurance sector, providing a range of insurance products to protect individuals and businesses. With a market cap of $55 billion, Allstate is significant in the financial sector, especially as consumer spending and economic conditions impact insurance demand.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Allstate reported an impressive EPS of $14.31, significantly beating estimates. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.65% the following day.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+52.10%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.36%
Analysts expect Allstate to continue its strong performance with a consensus EPS of $7.24 for Q1 2026. The upcoming earnings report is crucial for assessing the company's growth trajectory.
Bull case
If Allstate exceeds EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and customer retention, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if earnings fall short of expectations, it may indicate challenges in the insurance market or increased competition, leading to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$7.24Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$17.3BRevenue growth reflects the company's ability to attract and retain customers in a competitive market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Allstate's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $7.24?
A beat could reinforce investor confidence in the company's growth and operational strength.
Q2
What insights can management provide about revenue growth in the current economic climate?
Understanding revenue trends will help gauge the company's market position and future prospects.
—
Est. EPS
$1.52
Est. Rev
$3.6B
Impl. Move
±39.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may be underestimating Allstate's ability to capitalize on market opportunities, especially given its recent strong earnings performance.
Supporting evidence
Allstate has consistently beaten EPS estimates in the last four quarters, indicating strong operational execution.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility.
The company's recent performance trends indicate resilience in a challenging market.
Key risk
If EPS comes in below $7.00, it could challenge the positive narrative built around Allstate's recent performance.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The upcoming earnings report will be critical in determining whether Allstate can maintain its growth trajectory amid market challenges.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $8.00 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and growth.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $5.87 would indicate significant challenges and could lead to a reassessment of the company's outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±5.05%
Historical Avg
±1.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±5.0% while ALL has averaged ±1.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
19.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials
Fade rate: 5 of 6 (83%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 5 of 6 (83%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.2%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (modestly positive historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$23.8M
89,221 sh
2 insiders
Net
$23.8M
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 5 open-market trades
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
86.11%
of float
Insider
0.50%
of float
Holders
2,233
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
22,860,586 sh · $5.1B
9.04%
4.4%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Allstate beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.43%, confirming a strong operational outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 1.11%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
$8.9M
Net selling
$14.9M
Net selling
Recent Transactions
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43,398 sh
$11.5M
Aug 7, 2026 · @ $268.80
25,717 sh
$6.9M
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12,827 sh
$3.4M
Aug 7, 2026 · @ $272.05
3,901 sh
$1.1M
Aug 7, 2026 · @ $270.20
3,378 sh
$912,728.84
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
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Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Aug 12, 2026 · disclosed Sep 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.