Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 14, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.74
EPS est.
$-0.79
EPS surprise
+6.09%
1-day move
-0.93%
Alumis Inc. reported a narrower loss than expected for EPS, which is a positive sign for investors. However, the stock still fell by 0.93%, indicating that the market may have had concerns about the lack of revenue and guidance. The absence of a revenue figure and management commentary leaves uncertainty about the company's future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.74 | $-0.78 | +6.09% |
| Revenue | — | $2M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Alumis Inc. operates in the health care sector, specifically in pharmaceuticals. The company focuses on developing innovative therapies, which are crucial for addressing unmet medical needs in various diseases. With a market cap of $3 billion, Alumis is positioned to impact patient care significantly.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Alumis reported a significant earnings miss, with an EPS of $-23.10 compared to an expectation of $-1.57. The stock reacted positively, gaining 4.59% the following day despite the disappointing results.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-682.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.83%
Analysts expect Alumis to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.78. Revenue expectations are modest at $2 million, indicating cautious optimism about product sales.
Bull case
If Alumis can exceed revenue expectations or show signs of narrowing losses, it could signal a turnaround, attracting more investor interest.
Bear case
A larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue could raise concerns about the company's financial health and future growth prospects.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.78Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
$2MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.78?
A smaller loss could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which the market will view positively.
Q2
What revenue figures will Alumis report, and how do they compare to the $2 million consensus?
Revenue performance will be critical in assessing market demand and the effectiveness of Alumis's sales strategies.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.24
Est. Rev
$2M
Impl. Move
±12.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for revenue growth as new therapies gain traction in the market.
Supporting evidence
The stock's recent positive reaction to a large EPS miss suggests that investors may be looking for signs of recovery.
Options pricing indicates expectations for a significant move, which could reflect underlying optimism not captured in consensus estimates.
Key risk
If revenue comes in above $2 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter, the focus is on whether Alumis can demonstrate improved financial performance amidst previous losses.
Bull confirmed if
Reporting revenue above $2 million and an EPS loss narrower than $-0.70 would confirm the bullish case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than $-0.86 or revenue significantly below $2 million would confirm the bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±24.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.
30d HV
86.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
77.10%
of float
Insider
0.62%
of float
Holders
197
institutions
Top Holders· as of Dec 2025
Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.59%, confirming a positive sentiment shift.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 4.59% following disappointing results.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Foresite Capital Management V, LLC
5,779,348 sh · $144.1M
4.69%
Flat
Samsara BioCapital, LLC
5,756,984 sh · $143.5M
4.68%
19.9%
venBio Partners LLC
4,619,803 sh · $115.2M
3.75%
Flat
Blackrock Inc.
4,566,502 sh · $113.8M
3.71%
8.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.