Equity Profile

ALMS

Alumis Inc.

Health CarePharmaceuticals$2.8B

May14Thu

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026After Close4:05 PM EDT

Alumis Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.93%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.74	$-0.78	+6.09%
Revenue	—	$2M	—

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Alumis Inc. Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.93%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$-0.74	$-0.78	+6.09%
Revenue	—	$2M	—

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.

What It Means

Alumis Inc. reported a narrower loss than expected for EPS, which is a positive sign for investors. However, the stock still fell by 0.93%, indicating that the market may have had concerns about the lack of revenue and guidance. The absence of a revenue figure and management commentary leaves uncertainty about the company's future performance.

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. operates in the health care sector, specifically in pharmaceuticals....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

$-0.78

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$2M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. operates in the health care sector, specifically in pharmaceuticals. The company focuses on developing innovative therapies, which are crucial for addressing unmet medical needs in various diseases. With a market cap of $3 billion, Alumis is positioned to impact patient care significantly.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Alumis reported a significant earnings miss, with an EPS of $-23.10 compared to an expectation of $-1.57. The stock reacted positively, gaining 4.59% the following day despite the disappointing results.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Alumis to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.78. Revenue expectations are modest at $2 million, indicating cautious optimism about product sales.

Bull Case

If Alumis can exceed revenue expectations or show signs of narrowing losses, it could signal a turnaround, attracting more investor interest.

Bear Case

A larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue could raise concerns about the company's financial health and future growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.78

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$2M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.78?

A smaller loss could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which the market will view positively.

What revenue figures will Alumis report, and how do they compare to the $2 million consensus?

Revenue performance will be critical in assessing market demand and the effectiveness of Alumis's sales strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for revenue growth as new therapies gain traction in the market.

Supporting Evidence

The stock's recent positive reaction to a large EPS miss suggests that investors may be looking for signs of recovery.

Options pricing indicates expectations for a significant move, which could reflect underlying optimism not captured in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $2 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on whether Alumis can demonstrate improved financial performance amidst previous losses.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting revenue above $2 million and an EPS loss narrower than $-0.70 would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.86 or revenue significantly below $2 million would confirm the bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±24.3%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Detail

30d HV

86.2%

Calls (31K)P/C Ratio: 3.14Puts (16K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.59%, confirming a positive sentiment shift.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 4.59% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Details on cost management strategies and how they are affecting EPS.
3Insights into market demand for existing therapies.
4Management's outlook on future sales growth and market conditions.
5Any commentary on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance product distribution.

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Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. operates in the health care sector, specifically in pharmaceuticals....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

$-0.78

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$2M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Alumis to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.78. Revenue expectations are modest at $2 million, indicating cautious optimism about product sales.

Bull Case

If Alumis can exceed revenue expectations or show signs of narrowing losses, it could signal a turnaround, attracting more investor interest.

Bear Case

A larger-than-expected loss or lower revenue could raise concerns about the company's financial health and future growth prospects.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.78

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.

Revenue

$2M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.78?

A smaller loss could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which the market will view positively.

What revenue figures will Alumis report, and how do they compare to the $2 million consensus?

Revenue performance will be critical in assessing market demand and the effectiveness of Alumis's sales strategies.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate the potential for revenue growth as new therapies gain traction in the market.

Supporting Evidence

The stock's recent positive reaction to a large EPS miss suggests that investors may be looking for signs of recovery.

Options pricing indicates expectations for a significant move, which could reflect underlying optimism not captured in consensus estimates.

Key Risk

If revenue comes in above $2 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on whether Alumis can demonstrate improved financial performance amidst previous losses.

Bull Confirmed If

Reporting revenue above $2 million and an EPS loss narrower than $-0.70 would confirm the bullish case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.86 or revenue significantly below $2 million would confirm the bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±24.3%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings report.

Detail

30d HV

86.2%

Calls (31K)P/C Ratio: 3.14Puts (16K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.59%, confirming a positive sentiment shift.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 4.59% following disappointing results.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Details on cost management strategies and how they are affecting EPS.
3Insights into market demand for existing therapies.
4Management's outlook on future sales growth and market conditions.
5Any commentary on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance product distribution.