Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 12, 2026
Est. EPS
$-0.72
Est. revenue
$1M
Implied move
±33.0%
EPS beat rate
50%
Alumis Inc. operates in the health care sector, specifically focusing on pharmaceuticals. With a market cap of $1 billion, the company is involved in developing and marketing innovative drugs, which is crucial in addressing various health challenges and improving patient outcomes.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, Alumis reported an EPS of $-0.74, which was better than the expected $-0.79, indicating a slight improvement in performance. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall sales.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-682.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.83%
Analysts expect Alumis to report a loss this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.72 and minimal revenue. The market is closely watching how the company manages its expenses and any updates on product development.
Bull case
If Alumis can beat the EPS estimate and show stronger-than-expected revenue, it could signal improved operational efficiency and market acceptance of its products.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses on both EPS and revenue, it may raise concerns about its financial health and ability to compete in the pharmaceutical market.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.72Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs.
Revenue
$1MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will the EPS come in better than the consensus estimate of $-0.72?
A better-than-expected EPS could indicate improved cost management and operational efficiency, which the market will likely reward.
Q2
What revenue figures will Alumis report, and how do they compare to the $1M consensus?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand and the company's growth trajectory, impacting investor sentiment.
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Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±11.9%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for cost reductions and operational efficiencies that Alumis could achieve this quarter.
Supporting evidence
The last quarter showed a smaller-than-expected EPS loss, suggesting improving management of expenses.
Options pricing indicates a significant expected move, which may reflect investor uncertainty rather than a consensus view.
The company has a history of surprising the market, as seen in the previous quarter's EPS surprise.
Key risk
If Alumis reports an EPS better than $-0.72, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Alumis can turn around its financial performance amid ongoing challenges in the pharmaceutical sector.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of better than $-0.72 along with revenue exceeding $1M would confirm the bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-0.72 and revenue below $1M would support the bearish case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±32.99%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction following the earnings report, indicating heightened volatility expectations.
ATM IV
1.2%
30d HV
247.8%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
77.10%
of float
Insider
0.62%
of float
Holders
197
institutions
Top Holders· as of Dec 2025
Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around -0.93%, confirming a positive shift in market perception.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a potential stock decline of about +4.59%, reflecting negative sentiment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Foresite Capital Management V, LLC
5,779,348 sh · $144.1M
4.69%
Flat
Samsara BioCapital, LLC
5,756,984 sh · $143.5M
4.68%
19.9%
venBio Partners LLC
4,619,803 sh · $115.2M
3.75%
Flat
Blackrock Inc.
4,566,502 sh · $113.8M
3.71%
8.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.