Equity Profile

ALMS

Alumis Inc.

Health CarePharmaceuticals$3.6B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company in the health care sector, focusing on developing innovative treatments....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Alumis is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its market presence and product sales.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company in the health care sector, focusing on developing innovative treatments. With a market cap of $4 billion, its performance is closely watched by investors, especially given the ongoing advancements in health care technology and drug development.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Alumis reported an EPS of -$0.74, which was better than the expected -$0.79, resulting in a slight stock decline of 0.93% the following day. However, the company did not provide revenue figures or guidance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

With no analyst estimates available, expectations for this quarter remain uncertain. Investors are particularly focused on how the company will manage its costs and revenue amid a challenging market.

Bull Case

If Alumis can demonstrate significant improvements in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand for its products.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports larger-than-expected losses or stagnating revenue, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and competitive position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS will be a critical measure of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How much is being allocated to R&D this quarter?

R&D spending is vital for future growth and innovation, and any significant changes could impact the company's long-term prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent product launches and their potential to drive revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The previous quarter's EPS surprise indicates that the company may be better positioned than analysts expect.

Options pricing suggests a high level of uncertainty, which could mean that the market is not fully accounting for potential positive outcomes.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in significantly better than expected, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Alumis can improve its financial performance amid ongoing challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $-0.50 or better alongside revenue growth would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.00 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.76%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, with the stock possibly moving sideways as investors digest the results.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.59%, raising concerns about its operational health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Details on cost management strategies and how they affect profitability.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how Alumis plans to position itself.
4Any commentary on regulatory challenges or approvals that could impact future sales.
5Updates on partnerships or collaborations that may enhance the product pipeline.

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Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company in the health care sector, focusing on developing innovative treatments....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well Alumis is managing its costs and revenue.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth will indicate the company's ability to expand its market presence and product sales.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

With no analyst estimates available, expectations for this quarter remain uncertain. Investors are particularly focused on how the company will manage its costs and revenue amid a challenging market.

Bull Case

If Alumis can demonstrate significant improvements in EPS and revenue growth, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand for its products.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports larger-than-expected losses or stagnating revenue, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and competitive position.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS will be a critical measure of profitability and will heavily influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How much is being allocated to R&D this quarter?

R&D spending is vital for future growth and innovation, and any significant changes could impact the company's long-term prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of recent product launches and their potential to drive revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The previous quarter's EPS surprise indicates that the company may be better positioned than analysts expect.

Options pricing suggests a high level of uncertainty, which could mean that the market is not fully accounting for potential positive outcomes.

Key Risk

If the EPS comes in significantly better than expected, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Alumis can improve its financial performance amid ongoing challenges in the pharmaceutical industry.

Bull Confirmed If

A positive EPS of $-0.50 or better alongside revenue growth would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS worse than $-1.00 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.76%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to a muted reaction, with the stock possibly moving sideways as investors digest the results.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.59%, raising concerns about its operational health.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new product launches and their expected impact on revenue.
2Details on cost management strategies and how they affect profitability.
3Insights into the competitive landscape and how Alumis plans to position itself.
4Any commentary on regulatory challenges or approvals that could impact future sales.
5Updates on partnerships or collaborations that may enhance the product pipeline.