Equity Profile

ALMS

Alumis Inc.

Health CarePharmaceuticals$3.1B

Aug12Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company operating in the health care sector, focusing on developing innovative treatments....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement.

$-0.72

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$1M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company operating in the health care sector, focusing on developing innovative treatments. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company is significant in addressing unmet medical needs, which is crucial as the health care landscape continues to evolve.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Alumis reported an EPS of $-0.74, slightly beating analyst expectations of $-0.79. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leading to a modest stock decline of 0.93% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Alumis to report a loss again this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.72. Revenue expectations are low, indicating cautious sentiment among investors.

Bull Case

If Alumis can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of narrowing losses, it could boost investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss than anticipated or fails to generate any revenue, it could lead to a significant sell-off.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.72

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement.

Revenue

$1M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS be better than the consensus estimate of $-0.72?

A smaller loss than expected could indicate improving operational efficiency and boost investor sentiment.

What revenue figures will be reported, and how do they compare to the $1M consensus?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand and the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly pessimistic about Alumis's ability to narrow losses, given recent operational improvements not yet reflected in analyst estimates.

Supporting Evidence

The company has shown a slight improvement in EPS surprise in the last quarter, indicating potential operational efficiency.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating a surprise, either positive or negative.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS loss significantly lower than $-0.72, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reveal whether Alumis can stabilize its financials amidst ongoing challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS loss of less than $-0.72 and revenue exceeding $1M would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.72 and no revenue would confirm a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock price, suggesting high uncertainty around the earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.76%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.59%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on product pipeline developments and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and operational efficiency.
3Insights into market demand for existing products and any new launches.
4Guidance on future quarters and expectations for revenue growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive positioning in the pharmaceutical market.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company operating in the health care sector, focusing on developing innovative treatments....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement.

$-0.72

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$1M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALMS Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 2Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

-682.62%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.83%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Alumis to report a loss again this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.72. Revenue expectations are low, indicating cautious sentiment among investors.

Bull Case

If Alumis can exceed revenue expectations and show signs of narrowing losses, it could boost investor confidence and lead to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company reports a larger loss than anticipated or fails to generate any revenue, it could lead to a significant sell-off.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$-0.72

Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement.

Revenue

$1M

Revenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will the EPS be better than the consensus estimate of $-0.72?

A smaller loss than expected could indicate improving operational efficiency and boost investor sentiment.

What revenue figures will be reported, and how do they compare to the $1M consensus?

Revenue performance is critical for assessing market demand and the company's growth trajectory.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus is overly pessimistic about Alumis's ability to narrow losses, given recent operational improvements not yet reflected in analyst estimates.

Supporting Evidence

The company has shown a slight improvement in EPS surprise in the last quarter, indicating potential operational efficiency.

The options market is pricing a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating a surprise, either positive or negative.

Key Risk

If the company reports an EPS loss significantly lower than $-0.72, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reveal whether Alumis can stabilize its financials amidst ongoing challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS loss of less than $-0.72 and revenue exceeding $1M would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS loss greater than $-0.72 and no revenue would confirm a bearish outlook.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±56.56%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock price, suggesting high uncertainty around the earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

1.2%

30d HV

56.7%

Calls (1K)P/C Ratio: 0.00Puts (6K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat setup in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

77.10%

of float

Insider

0.62%

of float

Holders

197

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by an average of 2.76%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.59%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on product pipeline developments and their expected impact on revenue.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and operational efficiency.
3Insights into market demand for existing products and any new launches.
4Guidance on future quarters and expectations for revenue growth.
5Responses to analyst questions regarding competitive positioning in the pharmaceutical market.