Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Nov 13, 2024
Est. EPS
$-0.78
Est. revenue
$2M
Implied move
±23.3%
EPS beat rate
50%
Alumis Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative healthcare solutions. Operating in the health care sector, it plays a crucial role in addressing unmet medical needs through its drug development efforts.
Last quarter
In Q2-2024, Alumis reported a significant loss of $-23.10 per share, far worse than analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 4.59% the following day despite the disappointing results.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
-682.62%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.83%
Analysts expect Alumis to report a loss again this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $-0.78. Revenue expectations are modest at $2 million, reflecting ongoing challenges.
Bull case
If Alumis can narrow its losses and show any revenue growth, it could signal a turnaround that excites investors and boosts the stock.
Bear case
Continued losses and failure to meet revenue expectations could lead to further declines in stock price, as investor confidence wanes.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-0.78Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability, and investors will be closely watching for any signs of improvement or worsening losses.
Revenue
$2MRevenue figures will provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS improve from the consensus estimate of $-0.78?
A smaller loss than expected could indicate progress in cost management or operational efficiency, which is crucial for investor sentiment.
Q2
What revenue figures will be reported, and how do they compare to the $2M consensus?
Revenue performance is essential for assessing market demand and the company's ability to generate sales, impacting future growth prospects.
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Est. EPS
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Est. Rev
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Impl. Move
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Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for revenue growth as Alumis could be on the verge of launching new products that have not been fully accounted for.
Supporting evidence
The stock has shown resilience in the past despite poor earnings, indicating potential for recovery.
Options pricing suggests a larger movement than typical, indicating that investors are anticipating a significant change.
The recent stock price increase post-earnings, despite losses, suggests underlying optimism.
Key risk
If revenue significantly exceeds the $2M consensus, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a significant earnings miss last quarter, and investors are looking for signs of recovery.
Bull confirmed if
Reporting an EPS loss narrower than $-0.70 with revenue exceeding $2M would confirm a positive shift in the company's trajectory.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS loss greater than $-0.86 and revenue below $2M would reinforce negative sentiment and concerns about the company's viability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±23.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential movement in the stock following the earnings report, indicating uncertainty among investors.
30d HV
45.7%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
77.10%
of float
Insider
0.62%
of float
Holders
197
institutions
Top Holders· as of Dec 2025
Ayurmaya Capital Management Company, LP
15,139,706 sh · $377.4M
12.29%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Alumis beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise significantly, confirming a positive shift in performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await clearer signs of recovery.
Miss
If the company misses estimates, history suggests a potential drop in stock price, as investor confidence could further erode.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Foresite Capital Management V, LLC
5,779,348 sh · $144.1M
4.69%
Flat
Samsara BioCapital, LLC
5,756,984 sh · $143.5M
4.68%
19.9%
venBio Partners LLC
4,619,803 sh · $115.2M
3.75%
Flat
Blackrock Inc.
4,566,502 sh · $113.8M
3.71%
8.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.