Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±10.3%
EPS beat rate
100%
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides technology solutions for security and automation in homes and businesses. As part of the Information Technology sector, the company plays a significant role in the growing demand for smart home and security systems, which are increasingly integrated with IoT (Internet of Things) technologies.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Alarm.com reported an EPS of $0.77, significantly exceeding expectations by 44.47%. However, the stock experienced a slight decline of 0.65% the following day.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+51.46%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.11%
Overall, analysts are cautiously optimistic about Alarm.com's upcoming earnings, especially given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates.
Bull case
If the company continues its trend of exceeding EPS expectations, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, any signs of slowing revenue growth or increased competition in the smart home sector could lead to a negative market reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.77EPS is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing its costs and revenues.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth is crucial for understanding the company's market demand and overall business health.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the reported revenue growth rate for the quarter?
Revenue growth is critical for assessing the company's ability to expand in a competitive market and will heavily influence investor sentiment.
Q2
Will management provide any updates on new product launches or market expansion?
Insights into product development and market strategy can indicate future growth potential and operational direction.
Est. EPS
$1.98
Est. Rev
$113.6B
Impl. Move
±4.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating Alarm.com's ability to maintain strong growth despite competitive pressures, as evidenced by its consistent EPS beats.
Supporting evidence
The company has a 100% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, indicating strong operational performance.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, which could reflect underlying confidence not captured in consensus estimates.
Key risk
If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it could either reinforce the company's growth trajectory or highlight potential weaknesses.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.70 could raise concerns about profitability and market competitiveness.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±10.32%
Historical Avg
±1.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±10.3% while ALRM has averaged ±1.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
20.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of -2.3% (modestly negative historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
101.83%
of float
Insider
5.59%
of float
Holders
451
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
9,492,105 sh · $519.0M
19.19%
3.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Alarm.com beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.11% on the following day, confirming bullish sentiment.
In line / cautious
If the results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical data indicating a potential drop of around 1.65%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
4,035,026 sh · $220.6M
8.16%
2.0%
Disciplined Growth Investors, Inc.
3,585,614 sh · $196.1M
7.25%
9.7%
Bank of Montreal /CAN/
3,455,190 sh · $188.9M
6.99%
30.0%
State Street Corporation
2,188,123 sh · $119.6M
4.42%
7.5%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.