Equity Profile

ALSN

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc.

IndustrialsConstruction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment$10.2B

Aug4Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles and heavy machinery....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$2.59

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$1.5B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALSN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles and heavy machinery. As part of the industrial sector, the company plays a crucial role in the construction and transportation industries, which are vital for economic growth and infrastructure development.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-0.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.01%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Allison reported an EPS of $2.57, slightly beating estimates. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leading to a modest stock decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Allison to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.59. Investors are particularly focused on revenue growth and any signs of demand in the construction and transportation sectors.

Bull Case

If the company beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand for its products, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or fails to provide clear guidance on future revenue, it may raise concerns about slowing demand and negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.59

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.5B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Allison's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.59?

A beat on EPS could signal strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What guidance can management provide regarding revenue growth in the construction and transportation sectors?

Clear guidance on revenue trends will be crucial for assessing future demand and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Allison's ability to capitalize on increased demand in the heavy transportation sector, which could lead to higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate a potential for stronger performance than analysts anticipate.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on whether Allison can maintain its earnings momentum amid potential market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.43 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about demand and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.74%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.7% while ALSN has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

35.9%

Calls (300)P/C Ratio: 0.40Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 18 of 24 (75%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.8%, with a raw directional average of +1.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Allison beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.4% on the day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

If the company misses estimates, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.16%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends in the construction and transportation sectors.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into new product developments or innovations.
4Guidance on expected sales growth for the next quarter.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting the industry.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Aug3

ONBMO

ON Semiconductor Corporation

PreviewView

Aug3

LBMO

Company Snapshot

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles and heavy machinery....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$2.59

Revenue

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

$1.5B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ALSN Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

-0.28%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.01%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Allison reported an EPS of $2.57, slightly beating estimates. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leading to a modest stock decline the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If the company beats EPS estimates and shows strong revenue growth, it could indicate robust demand for its products, leading to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or fails to provide clear guidance on future revenue, it may raise concerns about slowing demand and negatively impact the stock.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2.59

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.5B

Total revenue gives insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Allison's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2.59?

A beat on EPS could signal strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What guidance can management provide regarding revenue growth in the construction and transportation sectors?

Clear guidance on revenue trends will be crucial for assessing future demand and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Allison's ability to capitalize on increased demand in the heavy transportation sector, which could lead to higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

The company's recent EPS surprises indicate a potential for stronger performance than analysts anticipate.

Options pricing suggests a significant move, indicating that traders expect volatility that could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter, the focus is on whether Allison can maintain its earnings momentum amid potential market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.70 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2.43 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about demand and profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±13.74%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±13.7% while ALSN has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

35.9%

Calls (300)P/C Ratio: 0.40Puts (100)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials

n=30

Fade rate: 6 of 24 (25%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Allison beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 0.4% on the day, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.

Miss

If the company misses estimates, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.16%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on demand trends in the construction and transportation sectors.
2Management's commentary on cost management and operational efficiencies.
3Insights into new product developments or innovations.
4Guidance on expected sales growth for the next quarter.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting the industry.