Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Fri, Oct 23, 2026
Est. EPS
$2.19
Est. revenue
$2.7B
Implied move
±5.0%
EPS beat rate
88%
Autoliv, Inc. is a leading manufacturer of automotive safety systems, including airbags and seatbelts. As a key player in the consumer discretionary sector, the company's performance is closely tied to the automotive industry and consumer spending trends.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, Autoliv reported an EPS of $2.43, exceeding expectations by 3.76%. However, the stock declined by 3.78% the following day, indicating market skepticism despite the positive earnings.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
7Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+9.84%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.10%
Analysts expect Autoliv to report solid earnings, with a consensus EPS of $2.19 and revenue of $2.7B. The market is watching closely for any signs of growth or challenges in the automotive sector.
Bull case
If Autoliv beats expectations, it could signal strong demand for automotive safety products and effective cost management, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, any miss on earnings or revenue could raise concerns about slowing demand in the automotive market, leading to a negative reaction from investors.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$2.19Earnings per share is a crucial indicator of profitability and reflects how well the company is managing its costs and generating income.
Revenue
$2.7BRevenue figures provide insight into the overall sales performance and demand for Autoliv's products in the automotive market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will EPS exceed $2.19, indicating strong profitability?
A beat on EPS could reinforce confidence in Autoliv's operational efficiency and market demand.
Q2
How does revenue compare to the $2.7B consensus?
Revenue performance will be a key indicator of market conditions and demand for Autoliv's products.
—
Est. EPS
$1.38
Est. Rev
$2.3B
Impl. Move
±9.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for Autoliv to exceed EPS expectations due to strong demand in the automotive safety segment, which could be bolstered by recent regulatory changes.
Supporting evidence
The company has consistently beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, suggesting strong operational performance.
Options are pricing a 6.49% move, indicating higher volatility expectations than the historical average of 4.69%.
Key risk
If revenue comes in below $2.7B, it could undermine the bullish sentiment around Autoliv's growth prospects.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether Autoliv can maintain its growth trajectory in a potentially slowing automotive sector.
Bull confirmed if
EPS exceeding $2.19 with revenue above $2.7B would confirm strong demand and effective cost management.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.19 or revenue below $2.7B would raise concerns about market demand and profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.49%
Historical Avg
±4.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move around the earnings report, suggesting that traders expect volatility based on the upcoming results.
Options are pricing ±5.0% while ALV has averaged ±4.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
26.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Consumer Discretionary
Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 6.3%, with a raw directional average of +2.5% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
84.95%
of float
Insider
0.37%
of float
Holders
565
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Cevian Capital II Gp Ltd
6,298,508 sh · $696.1M
8.60%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Autoliv beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see an average move of +4.69%, confirming strong demand and operational efficiency.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors digest the news and management commentary.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline, with history suggesting an average drop of +6.00%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Blackrock Inc.
4,934,535 sh · $545.4M
6.74%
2.0%
Swedbank AB
3,391,457 sh · $374.8M
4.63%
29.4%
FMR, LLC
2,463,913 sh · $272.3M
3.36%
-3.5%
FIL LTD
2,388,201 sh · $263.9M
3.26%
-0.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.