Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Nov 2, 2026
Est. EPS
$8.67
Est. revenue
$660M
Implied move
±4.9%
EPS beat rate
75%
Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. (AMG) is a financial services company that partners with boutique investment management firms. With a market cap of $10 billion, AMG plays a significant role in the asset management sector, which is influenced by trends in global markets and investor sentiment.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, AMG reported an EPS of $8.29, surpassing estimates by 5.55%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.50% the following day.
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+0.86%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.18%
Analysts are generally optimistic about AMG's upcoming earnings, expecting strong EPS and revenue figures. The consensus EPS of $8.67 indicates continued profitability.
Bull case
If AMG beats EPS expectations, it could signal robust demand for its investment management services, potentially leading to a significant stock price increase.
Bear case
Conversely, if AMG misses its EPS target, it may raise concerns about its ability to maintain profitability in a competitive market, leading to a negative stock reaction.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$8.67EPS is a key indicator of profitability and reflects the company's ability to generate earnings for shareholders.
Revenue
$660MRevenue growth is crucial for assessing the overall health and expansion of AMG's business operations.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will AMG's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $8.67?
A beat on EPS could reinforce investor confidence in AMG's growth and profitability, potentially driving the stock price higher.
Q2
What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth trends?
Understanding revenue dynamics is critical for assessing AMG's market position and future performance, especially in a fluctuating economic environment.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.50
Est. Rev
$257M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating AMG's potential for higher-than-expected revenue growth due to strong performance in niche markets.
Supporting evidence
AMG has a history of beating EPS estimates, with a 75% success rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating higher volatility expectations.
Recent market trends suggest increased investor interest in boutique asset management firms, which could benefit AMG.
Key risk
If AMG's revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could challenge the current consensus and drive the stock higher.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance will be closely tied to AMG's ability to meet or exceed earnings expectations amid market volatility.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $8.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $8.55 would support the bear case, raising concerns about profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±4.93%
Historical Avg
±3.7%
The options market is pricing in a nearly 5% move for AMG's stock following the earnings report, suggesting uncertainty about the results.
Options are pricing ±4.9% while AMG has averaged ±3.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.4%
30d HV
24.6%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
100.58%
of float
Insider
4.23%
of float
Holders
731
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
2,772,736 sh · $1.0B
10.72%
-3.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AMG beats expectations, history suggests a stock increase of around 2.99% on the day, confirming strong demand for its services.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further commentary from management.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of approximately 4.23%, reflecting investor disappointment and concerns about future growth.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Morgan Stanley
1,487,219 sh · $560.8M
5.75%
-14.2%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
1,391,836 sh · $524.8M
5.38%
2.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
1,151,085 sh · $434.1M
4.45%
-2.0%
Boston Partners
1,001,967 sh · $377.8M
3.87%
3.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.