Equity Profile

AON

Aon plc

FinancialsInsurance Brokers$67.5B

May1Fri

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market6:30 AM EDT

Aon plc Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.04%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$6.48	$6.35	+2.37%
Revenue	N/A	$5.0B	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Aon plc Beats on EPS, Stock Down 0.04%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$6.48	$6.35	+2.37%
Revenue	N/A	$5.0B	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Unknown

No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on the numerical results.

What It Means

Aon plc reported better-than-expected earnings per share for Q1-2026, which indicates strong performance in that area. However, the stock reacted slightly down by 0.04%, suggesting that investors may have been looking for more comprehensive revenue details or guidance. The lack of revenue information and management commentary could have contributed to the muted stock reaction.

Company Snapshot

Aon plc is a leading global professional services firm that provides a wide range of risk, retirement, and health solutions. Operating in the financial sector, Aon plays a crucial role in the insurance brokerage industry, helping businesses manage risks and optimize their insurance needs.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$6.35

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

$5.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.90%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Aon reported an EPS of $4.85, exceeding expectations by 1.83%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.95% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to focus on enhancing client solutions.
Maintain strong performance in risk management services.
Explore opportunities for growth in emerging markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting Aon to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $6.35. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its growth momentum.

Bull Case

If Aon beats earnings expectations, it could signal strong demand for its services and a robust business outlook, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Aon misses its earnings target, it may raise concerns about slowing growth or challenges in the insurance market, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$6.35

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$5.0B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Aon's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $6.35?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth in key segments?

Understanding revenue drivers will help gauge the company's growth prospects and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Aon's ability to leverage its recent investments in technology and client solutions, which could drive higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Aon's historical performance shows a consistent ability to beat EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant surprises.

Recent positive trends in the insurance market may not be fully reflected in current analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If Aon's revenue growth shows signs of accelerating beyond current estimates, it could challenge the consensus view.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect Aon's ability to sustain growth amid market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Aon reports EPS growth exceeding $6.35, indicating strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

Aon reports EPS below $6.12, raising concerns about potential headwinds in the insurance market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.82%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move for Aon's stock around the earnings report, suggesting heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while AON has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

27.2%

Calls (3K)P/C Ratio: 0.77Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 6 (83%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 5 of 6 (83%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.2%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Aon beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.03%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

If Aon misses expectations, the stock could drop by about 2.27%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on client demand trends in key service areas.
2Any commentary on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into new technology initiatives and their expected ROI.
4Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.
5Details on any strategic partnerships or acquisitions that may enhance growth.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Apr28

AITReported

Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.

RecapView

Apr28

ZBHReported

Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

$6.35

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

$5.0B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+2.04%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.90%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Aon reported an EPS of $4.85, exceeding expectations by 1.83%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.95% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continue to focus on enhancing client solutions.
Maintain strong performance in risk management services.
Explore opportunities for growth in emerging markets.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are expecting Aon to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $6.35. Investors are keen to see if the company can maintain its growth momentum.

Bull Case

If Aon beats earnings expectations, it could signal strong demand for its services and a robust business outlook, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if Aon misses its earnings target, it may raise concerns about slowing growth or challenges in the insurance market, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$6.35

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and is closely watched by investors.

Revenue

$5.0B

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and growth trajectory.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Aon's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $6.35?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence.

What insights will management provide regarding revenue growth in key segments?

Understanding revenue drivers will help gauge the company's growth prospects and market positioning.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Aon's ability to leverage its recent investments in technology and client solutions, which could drive higher-than-expected revenue growth.

Supporting Evidence

Aon's historical performance shows a consistent ability to beat EPS estimates, with a 63% beat rate.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant surprises.

Recent positive trends in the insurance market may not be fully reflected in current analyst estimates.

Key Risk

If Aon's revenue growth shows signs of accelerating beyond current estimates, it could challenge the consensus view.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it will reflect Aon's ability to sustain growth amid market challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Aon reports EPS growth exceeding $6.35, indicating strong demand and effective cost management.

Bear Confirmed If

Aon reports EPS below $6.12, raising concerns about potential headwinds in the insurance market.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±5.82%

Historical Avg

±4.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move for Aon's stock around the earnings report, suggesting heightened investor uncertainty.

Options are pricing ±5.8% while AON has averaged ±4.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

27.2%

Calls (3K)P/C Ratio: 0.77Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 5 of 6 (83%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Aon beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 3.03%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await further guidance from management.

Miss

If Aon misses expectations, the stock could drop by about 2.27%, reflecting investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on client demand trends in key service areas.
2Any commentary on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into new technology initiatives and their expected ROI.
4Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.
5Details on any strategic partnerships or acquisitions that may enhance growth.