Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, Jul 28, 2026
EPS actual
$0.94
EPS est.
$0.92
EPS surprise
+2.17%
1-day move
+1.46%
Artisan Partners reported an EPS of $0.94, slightly beating expectations, which contributed to a 1.46% increase in stock price. However, there was no revenue figure provided, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. The lack of guidance and management commentary means investors will need to wait for further information to assess future prospects.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.94 | N/A | +2.17% |
| Revenue | N/A | N/A | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM) is a financial services firm that specializes in investment management. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a significant role in managing assets for clients, which is crucial in a fluctuating market environment where investment strategies can greatly impact returns.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Artisan Partners reported an EPS of $0.87, which was slightly below the expected $0.91, resulting in a 4.4% earnings surprise. The stock price fell by 0.79% the following day, reflecting market disappointment.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
+3.81%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.38%
Investors are cautiously optimistic heading into the upcoming earnings report, especially after a series of mixed results in previous quarters. The focus will be on whether the company can improve its earnings and attract new investments.
Bull case
If Artisan can report strong net client flows and a significant increase in AUM, it could lead to higher fee revenues, boosting overall profitability and investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company reports continued negative net flows or stagnant AUM, it may signal deeper issues in attracting and retaining clients, leading to further declines in stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What are the latest figures for net client flows this quarter?
Net client flows will be a critical indicator of the company's ability to attract and retain investments, which directly impacts future revenue.
Q2
How has AUM changed compared to the previous quarter?
Changes in AUM will provide insight into the company's growth trajectory and overall market competitiveness.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±3.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a rebound in net client flows, which could significantly improve revenue outlooks this quarter.
Supporting evidence
The options market is pricing a 14.16% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with the underlying fundamentals.
Historical data shows that the company has a 71% EPS beat rate, suggesting a higher likelihood of positive surprises.
Key risk
If net client flows show a significant improvement, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a re-evaluation of the stock's growth potential.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on the company's ability to attract new investments and manage existing assets effectively.
Bull confirmed if
AUM growth of over 5% quarter-over-quarter would confirm strong market demand and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
A decline in AUM or continued negative net flows would confirm concerns about the company's competitive position.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±14.16%
Historical Avg
±1.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of over 14%, suggesting that investors expect substantial volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±14.2% while APAM has averaged ±1.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
22.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Financials
Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
100.28%
of float
Insider
2.23%
of float
Holders
511
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
11,198,383 sh · $377.9M
15.77%
8.1%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Artisan reports better-than-expected earnings and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see an average move of +1.34%, confirming a bullish outlook.
In line / cautious
Should the results come in line with expectations but with cautious guidance, the stock may react moderately, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.
Miss
If the company misses earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -0.69%, indicating market disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management LLC
5,171,453 sh · $174.5M
7.28%
-7.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
4,209,313 sh · $142.1M
5.93%
1.9%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,062,850 sh · $103.4M
4.31%
1.0%
State Street Corporation
2,948,649 sh · $99.5M
4.15%
3.8%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.