Industrials·Cargo Ground Transportation·$2.7B
ArcBest Corp (ARCB) is a logistics company specializing in cargo ground transportation. With a market cap of $3 billion, it plays a crucial role in the supply chain, especially as consumer spending and e-commerce continue to grow.
EPS
Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues in the quarter.
Revenue
Revenue figures will reflect overall business activity and demand for transportation services, which can indicate broader economic trends.
Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.
EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
25%
Avg EPS Surprise
-3.59%
Avg Stock Reaction
-5.28%
In Q4 2025, ArcBest reported an EPS of $0.36, which was below the expected $0.45, leading to a stock increase of 5.76% the following day. This suggests that despite missing expectations, investors may have reacted positively to other factors.
Management Promises & Guidance
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about ArcBest's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest EPS of $0.29 and revenue close to $1 billion. However, the company has a mixed earnings history, which adds uncertainty.
Bull Case
If ArcBest can exceed the EPS estimate and show strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear Case
Conversely, if the company misses its earnings expectations again, it could raise concerns about operational efficiency and demand, potentially leading to a significant drop in stock price.
EPS
$0.29Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company managed costs and revenues in the quarter.
Revenue
$998MRevenue figures will reflect overall business activity and demand for transportation services, which can indicate broader economic trends.
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.29?
A beat on EPS could indicate better-than-expected operational efficiency and demand, which would likely boost investor confidence.
Q2
How does revenue compare to the $998 million consensus?
Revenue performance is critical for assessing overall business health and market demand, influencing future growth expectations.
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for a rebound in demand for logistics services, particularly if ArcBest can leverage its operational strengths.
Supporting Evidence
The company has shown resilience in past quarters despite missing estimates, indicating potential for recovery.
Options pricing suggests a smaller expected move than historical averages, which may reflect overly cautious sentiment.
Key Risk
If revenue significantly exceeds $1 billion, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether ArcBest can recover from recent earnings misses and demonstrate strong demand in a competitive logistics environment.
Bull Confirmed If
An EPS of $0.35 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $1 billion, would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
An EPS below $0.20 and revenue under $988 million would support the bear case.
Implied Move
±4.27%
Historical Avg
±7.0%
The options market is pricing in a moderate move around the earnings announcement, suggesting that investors are uncertain about the results.
Options are pricing ±4.3% while ARCB has averaged ±7.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing cheap.
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing cheap setup in Industrials
n=30Fade rate: 6 of 17 (35%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 11 of 17 (65%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.6%, with a raw directional average of -0.4% (modestly negative historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If ArcBest beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.14%, confirming a positive outlook.
In-Line / Cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the logistics sector.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of about 7.08%, as seen in previous quarters when expectations were not met.
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime
VERIZON COMMUNICATIO
Apr 27, 2026