Equity Profile

ARCC

Ares Capital Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$13.5B

Apr28Tue

Post-Earnings Recap

ReportedQ1-2026Pre-Market7:00 AM EDT

Ares Capital Corporation Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.32%

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.47	$0.48	-2.49%
Revenue	N/A	$776M	N/A

management commentary, guidance changes, and full analysis available with Pro.

Ares Capital Corporation Misses on EPS, Stock Down 0.32%

Key Numbers

Metric	Actual	Expected	Surprise
EPS	$0.47	$0.48	-2.49%
Revenue	N/A	$776M	N/A

Management Commentary

Tone: Cautiously Optimistic

Management expressed a cautious outlook due to current market challenges. They reaffirmed their focus on maintaining strong credit quality and diversifying their portfolio.

Management noted the challenging market conditions but remains focused on long-term growth.

They emphasized their commitment to maintaining strong credit quality.

The team highlighted ongoing efforts to diversify the portfolio.

What It Means

Ares Capital Corporation's earnings report indicates a slight miss on EPS expectations, which contributed to a modest decline in stock price. The company did not provide revenue figures, leaving investors with limited insights into overall performance. Management's cautious tone reflects ongoing market challenges, suggesting that investors should remain attentive to future developments.

Company Snapshot

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a leading investment firm in the financial sector, focusing on asset management and providing financing solutions to middle-market companies. With a market cap of $13 billion, ARCC plays a significant role in the financial landscape, especially as economic conditions evolve and businesses seek capital for growth.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, reflecting how much profit is allocated to each share of stock.

0.48

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand for its services.

776M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.50, matching analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.25% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect Ares Capital to report steady earnings and revenue, with a consensus EPS of $0.48 and revenue of $776 million. The market is closely watching for any signs of growth or challenges in the current economic environment.

Bull Case

If Ares Capital exceeds expectations, particularly in EPS, it could signal strong underlying business performance and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or shows declining revenue, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate a challenging economic landscape, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

0.48

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, reflecting how much profit is allocated to each share of stock.

Revenue

776M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ares Capital's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.48?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence, while a miss could raise concerns.

What insights can be provided regarding revenue growth compared to the consensus of $776 million?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding the company's market position and ability to generate income in a competitive environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares Capital's ability to navigate economic challenges, as its consistent EPS performance suggests resilience.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of matching or beating EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, signaling potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If Ares Capital's revenue exceeds $776 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing Ares Capital's ability to maintain profitability and revenue growth amidst economic challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings exceeding $0.48 per share with revenue surpassing $776 million would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings falling below $0.48 per share or revenue under $776 million would support a bearish view.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.94%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 5%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±2.7% while ARCC has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

23.1%

Calls (416K)P/C Ratio: 0.27Puts (112K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.6%, with a raw directional average of +0.5% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.76%, confirming strong business momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

In the event of a miss, the stock could decline by approximately 1.25%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the current economic environment and its impact on lending.
2Updates on portfolio performance and any significant changes in investment strategy.
3Insights into any new partnerships or investments that could drive growth.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue guidance.
5Responses to questions about potential risks in the market.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, reflecting how much profit is allocated to each share of stock.

0.48

Revenue

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand for its services.

776M

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

Original Pre-Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2025, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.50, matching analyst expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.25% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ares Capital exceeds expectations, particularly in EPS, it could signal strong underlying business performance and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses EPS estimates or shows declining revenue, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate a challenging economic landscape, leading to a negative stock reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

0.48

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, reflecting how much profit is allocated to each share of stock.

Revenue

776M

Revenue figures provide insight into the company's overall sales performance and market demand for its services.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Ares Capital's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.48?

A beat on EPS could indicate strong operational performance and boost investor confidence, while a miss could raise concerns.

What insights can be provided regarding revenue growth compared to the consensus of $776 million?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding the company's market position and ability to generate income in a competitive environment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares Capital's ability to navigate economic challenges, as its consistent EPS performance suggests resilience.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of matching or beating EPS estimates, indicating strong operational management.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, signaling potential for positive surprises.

Key Risk

If Ares Capital's revenue exceeds $776 million, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is weighing Ares Capital's ability to maintain profitability and revenue growth amidst economic challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings exceeding $0.48 per share with revenue surpassing $776 million would confirm a bullish outlook.

Bear Confirmed If

Earnings falling below $0.48 per share or revenue under $776 million would support a bearish view.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.94%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of nearly 5%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±2.7% while ARCC has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

23.1%

Calls (416K)P/C Ratio: 0.27Puts (112K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 1.6%, with a raw directional average of +0.5% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.76%, confirming strong business momentum.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty in future growth.

Miss

In the event of a miss, the stock could decline by approximately 1.25%, indicating investor disappointment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on the current economic environment and its impact on lending.
2Updates on portfolio performance and any significant changes in investment strategy.
3Insights into any new partnerships or investments that could drive growth.
4Management's outlook on future earnings and revenue guidance.
5Responses to questions about potential risks in the market.