Equity Profile

ARCC

Ares Capital Corporation

FinancialsAsset Management & Custody Banks$14.5B

Jul28Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a leading player in the financial sector, specifically in asset management and custody banking. With a market cap of $14 billion, the company focuses on providing capital to middle-market companies, making it an important part of the financial ecosystem as businesses seek funding for growth and expansion.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to generate sales and expand its business, crucial for investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARCC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.47, slightly missing the estimate of $0.48. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations are mixed as Ares Capital prepares to report its Q2-2026 earnings. Investors are keen to see if the company can improve its EPS and revenue figures after a slight miss last quarter.

Bull Case

If Ares Capital can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its services and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate the current economic environment, leading to potential stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the recent trend of missing EPS estimates, this figure will be crucial in determining investor sentiment and stock performance.

How has the company's NAV changed this quarter?

NAV is a critical measure of the company's investment performance and will provide insights into its overall financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares Capital's ability to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as the company has a strong track record of recovering after similar situations.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing an 8.93% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The recent trend of slight misses may not fully reflect the company's underlying strength and market position.

Key Risk

If Ares Capital can demonstrate a significant improvement in EPS and NAV, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Ares Capital can regain momentum after recent earnings misses.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.93%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while ARCC has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

17.3%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (48K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests a positive reaction, with an average 1-day move of +2.06%, confirming a bullish outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average 1-day move of -0.76%, signaling potential investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's investment strategy and how it is adapting to market conditions.
2Insights into the performance of key sectors where Ares Capital is invested.
3Management's outlook on future earnings and potential growth areas.
4Details on any changes in the company's NAV and its implications for investors.
5Any commentary on the competitive landscape and how Ares Capital plans to maintain its market position.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to generate sales and expand its business, crucial for investor confidence.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARCC Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

13%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.59%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.06%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, Ares Capital reported an EPS of $0.47, slightly missing the estimate of $0.48. The stock reacted positively, gaining 1.67% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Ares Capital can exceed EPS expectations and show strong revenue growth, it could signal robust demand for its services and boost investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate the current economic environment, leading to potential stock declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q2-2026?

Given the recent trend of missing EPS estimates, this figure will be crucial in determining investor sentiment and stock performance.

How has the company's NAV changed this quarter?

NAV is a critical measure of the company's investment performance and will provide insights into its overall financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Ares Capital's ability to rebound from its recent earnings miss, as the company has a strong track record of recovering after similar situations.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing an 8.93% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with historical performance.

The recent trend of slight misses may not fully reflect the company's underlying strength and market position.

Key Risk

If Ares Capital can demonstrate a significant improvement in EPS and NAV, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Ares Capital can regain momentum after recent earnings misses.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.50 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating a recovery in profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.45 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±8.93%

Historical Avg

±1.8%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±8.9% while ARCC has averaged ±1.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

17.3%

Calls (66K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (48K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Ares Capital beats expectations, history suggests a positive reaction, with an average 1-day move of +2.06%, confirming a bullish outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline, with history indicating an average 1-day move of -0.76%, signaling potential investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's investment strategy and how it is adapting to market conditions.
2Insights into the performance of key sectors where Ares Capital is invested.
3Management's outlook on future earnings and potential growth areas.
4Details on any changes in the company's NAV and its implications for investors.
5Any commentary on the competitive landscape and how Ares Capital plans to maintain its market position.