Post-earnings recap
Reported
Mon, Jul 27, 2026
EPS actual
$0.61
EPS est.
$0.62
EPS surprise
-1.61%
1-day move
+3.72%
Alliance Resource Partners reported an EPS of $0.61, slightly missing expectations. Despite this, the stock rose by 3.72%, indicating that investors may have reacted positively to other aspects of the company's performance or market conditions. The lack of revenue data and guidance leaves some uncertainty about future performance.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.61 | N/A | -1.61% |
| Revenue | — | N/A | — |
No transcript is on record for this earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (ARLP) operates in the energy sector, primarily focusing on coal and consumable fuels. As a significant player in the coal industry, the company is influenced by energy demand, regulatory changes, and shifts towards renewable energy sources.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, ARLP reported an EPS of $0.07, significantly missing the expected $0.27, which led to a modest stock increase of 2.21% the following day. This disappointing performance raises concerns about the company's ability to meet future expectations.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-22.84%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.03%
Overall expectations are cautious as ARLP has struggled with earnings misses in recent quarters. Investors are looking for signs of recovery or improvement in profitability.
Bull case
If ARLP can demonstrate a rebound in earnings and revenue, it may regain investor confidence, especially if coal demand remains strong.
Bear case
Continued earnings misses or poor revenue performance could lead to further declines in stock price, especially given the ongoing transition to renewable energy.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will ARLP's EPS exceed the $0.07 reported last quarter?
A significant improvement in EPS would signal a turnaround and could boost investor confidence.
Q2
What is the outlook for coal demand in the upcoming quarters?
Understanding demand trends is crucial for assessing ARLP's revenue potential and overall market position.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±11.0%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for a rebound in coal demand due to recent geopolitical tensions that could drive energy prices higher.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 13.58% move, suggesting significant uncertainty that may not align with historical performance.
ARLP's recent earnings history shows a pattern of recovery following significant misses, indicating potential for a turnaround.
Key risk
If coal demand increases unexpectedly, it could lead to a significant upward revision in earnings expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate revolves around ARLP's ability to recover from recent earnings misses and the overall demand for coal.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.20 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate a strong recovery.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.05 would reinforce the bear case and suggest ongoing challenges.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±13.58%
Historical Avg
±2.5%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating uncertainty about the upcoming earnings report.
Options are pricing ±13.6% while ARLP has averaged ±2.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
25.3%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
16.33%
of float
Insider
29.35%
of float
Holders
197
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Morgan Stanley
3,411,513 sh · $83.9M
2.65%
-29.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ARLP beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 3.89%, confirming a positive turnaround.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of 1.27%.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
2
1 buy·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$16,002.00–$65,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
2 trades
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Progeny 3, Inc.
3,248,264 sh · $79.9M
2.52%
0.6%
Magnolia Group, LLC
1,262,583 sh · $31.1M
0.98%
-10.5%
Atlanta Consulting Group Advisors, LLC
1,178,592 sh · $29.0M
0.92%
-0.1%
Lido Advisors, LLC
1,096,756 sh · $27.0M
0.85%
100.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Mixed
Recent Transactions
Traded Jun 18, 2026 · disclosed Jul 10, 2026
$15,001.00–$50,000.00
Traded May 15, 2026 · disclosed Jun 2, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.