Equity Profile

ARR

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.

FinancialsMortgage REITs$2.1B

Jul29Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) is a real estate investment trust that invests in residential mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.76

Dividend Yield

As a REIT, ARR is expected to provide dividends, and the yield can attract income-focused investors.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) is a real estate investment trust that invests in residential mortgage-backed securities. With a market cap of $2 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly in the mortgage REIT industry, which can be influenced by interest rates and housing market trends.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-25.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ARR reported an EPS of $0.76, exceeding expectations by 4.11%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.63% the following day, reflecting a positive market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about ARR's upcoming earnings, especially after a slight EPS beat last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.

Bull Case

If ARR can maintain or improve its EPS, it may signal strong management and effective investment strategies, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining profitability, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

$0.76

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Dividend Yield

N/A

As a REIT, ARR is expected to provide dividends, and the yield can attract income-focused investors.

Net Interest Margin

N/A

This metric indicates how well the company is managing its interest income versus its interest expenses, crucial for a mortgage REIT.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will significantly influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How is ARR managing its net interest margin in the current interest rate environment?

Understanding the net interest margin will provide insights into the company's operational efficiency and profitability potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on ARR's net interest margin, which could significantly affect profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened uncertainty.

ARR's recent EPS performance has shown volatility, suggesting the potential for unexpected results.

Key Risk

If the net interest margin declines significantly, it could undermine the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ARR can sustain its earnings growth amid fluctuating interest rates and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong earnings growth.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting declining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.51%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while ARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

22.6%

Calls (125K)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (33K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.08%, confirming positive investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.33%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy for managing interest rate risk.
2Insights into the performance of the mortgage-backed securities portfolio.
3Comments on the competitive landscape and how ARR is positioning itself.
4Guidance on future dividend payouts and any changes in policy.
5Management's outlook on the housing market and economic conditions.

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Company Snapshot

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) is a real estate investment trust that invests in residential mortgage-backed securities....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

$0.76

Dividend Yield

As a REIT, ARR is expected to provide dividends, and the yield can attract income-focused investors.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-25.80%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.18%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1 2026, ARR reported an EPS of $0.76, exceeding expectations by 4.11%. The stock saw a modest increase of 0.63% the following day, reflecting a positive market reaction.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about ARR's upcoming earnings, especially after a slight EPS beat last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.

Bull Case

If ARR can maintain or improve its EPS, it may signal strong management and effective investment strategies, leading to a positive stock reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining profitability, it could lead to a negative market reaction.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS (Earnings Per Share)

$0.76

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

Dividend Yield

N/A

As a REIT, ARR is expected to provide dividends, and the yield can attract income-focused investors.

Net Interest Margin

N/A

This metric indicates how well the company is managing its interest income versus its interest expenses, crucial for a mortgage REIT.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the EPS for Q2-2026?

EPS is a critical measure of profitability and will significantly influence investor sentiment and stock performance.

How is ARR managing its net interest margin in the current interest rate environment?

Understanding the net interest margin will provide insights into the company's operational efficiency and profitability potential.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on ARR's net interest margin, which could significantly affect profitability this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened uncertainty.

ARR's recent EPS performance has shown volatility, suggesting the potential for unexpected results.

Key Risk

If the net interest margin declines significantly, it could undermine the current bullish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether ARR can sustain its earnings growth amid fluctuating interest rates and economic conditions.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong earnings growth.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, suggesting declining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±12.51%

Historical Avg

±1.1%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±12.5% while ARR has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

22.6%

Calls (125K)P/C Ratio: 0.57Puts (33K)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ARR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.08%, confirming positive investor sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately 0.33%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on the company's strategy for managing interest rate risk.
2Insights into the performance of the mortgage-backed securities portfolio.
3Comments on the competitive landscape and how ARR is positioning itself.
4Guidance on future dividend payouts and any changes in policy.
5Management's outlook on the housing market and economic conditions.