Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, Jul 22, 2026
EPS actual
$0.72
EPS est.
$0.69
EPS surprise
+5.11%
1-day move
-0.30%
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) is a real estate investment trust that primarily invests in residential mortgage-backed securities. As part of the financial sector, it plays a crucial role in the mortgage market, providing liquidity and investment opportunities in a fluctuating interest rate environment.
Last quarter
In Q1-2026, ARR reported an EPS of $0.76, beating estimates by 4.11%. The stock saw a slight increase of 0.63% the following day, indicating a positive market reaction.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-27.08%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.18%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of ARR's earnings report, especially after a positive surprise last quarter. However, the lack of analyst estimates adds uncertainty to expectations.
Bull case
If ARR can continue to beat EPS estimates and maintain a strong dividend yield, it could attract more investors looking for income in a low-yield environment.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or shows signs of declining profitability, it could lead to a sell-off, especially given the volatility in the mortgage market.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2026, and how does it compare to last quarter's $0.76?
Given the recent history of earnings surprises, the EPS figure will be crucial in determining market sentiment and stock performance.
Q2
How is ARR managing its net interest margin in the current interest rate environment?
This will indicate the company's ability to maintain profitability amidst potential fluctuations in mortgage rates.
—
Est. EPS
$4.19
Est. Rev
$1.2B
Impl. Move
±16.2%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating the impact of rising interest rates on ARR's net interest margin, which could significantly affect profitability.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 12.51% move, suggesting heightened expectations that may not align with historical performance.
The company's recent EPS surprise of +4.11% indicates potential for continued outperformance.
The lack of analyst estimates could mean the market is not fully prepared for potential volatility.
Key risk
If net interest margin shows significant improvement, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The core debate this quarter centers around ARR's ability to sustain profitability in a challenging mortgage market.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.80 or higher would confirm strong management and profitability.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.70 would raise concerns about declining profitability and market position.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.51%
Historical Avg
±0.7%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±12.5% while ARR has averaged ±0.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
22.6%
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$10,084.75
725 sh
1 insider
Sold
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Net
$10,084.75
Net buying
Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade
$10,084.75
Net buying
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
56.68%
of float
Insider
0.20%
of float
Holders
328
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
19,974,341 sh · $265.5M
14.11%
15.3%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If ARR beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.08%, confirming a bullish outlook.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management is cautious, the stock may react neutrally, reflecting uncertainty in future guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns indicating a potential drop of around 0.33%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Recent Transactions
Sep 29, 2026 · @ $13.91
725 sh
$10,084.75
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
7,108,665 sh · $94.5M
5.02%
6.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
5,593,161 sh · $74.3M
3.95%
7.0%
State Street Corporation
4,745,078 sh · $63.1M
3.35%
15.0%
Geode Capital Management, LLC
3,220,896 sh · $42.8M
2.28%
18.3%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.