Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$5.22
EPS est.
$2.81
EPS surprise
+85.57%
1-day move
-1.05%
Arrow Electronics reported a strong earnings surprise on EPS, significantly exceeding expectations. However, the stock reacted negatively, declining by 1.05%. The lack of revenue data and guidance may have contributed to investor uncertainty.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $5.22 | $2.85 | +85.57% |
| Revenue | N/A | $8.3B | N/A |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Arrow Electronics, Inc. is a global provider of technology products and services, focusing on distribution and supply chain solutions in the Information Technology sector. As a key player in the technology distribution industry, Arrow plays a crucial role in connecting manufacturers with customers, especially in areas like cloud computing and electronic components.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, Arrow Electronics reported an EPS of $4.39, significantly exceeding expectations by 23.66%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 2.25% the following day.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+24.58%
Avg 1-day reaction
-3.69%
Analysts are expecting Arrow to report solid earnings this quarter, with a consensus EPS of $2.85 and revenue of $8.3B. The company has a strong track record of beating earnings expectations.
Bull case
If Arrow continues its trend of outperforming estimates, it could signal robust demand for its products and services, potentially leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations, it may raise concerns about slowing growth in the technology distribution sector, leading to a negative market response.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$2.85Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$8.3BTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Arrow Electronics achieve an EPS of at least $2.85?
This specific EPS target is critical as it reflects the company's profitability and ability to meet market expectations.
Q2
What are the revenue figures for this quarter?
Revenue is a key indicator of demand for Arrow's products and services, and any significant deviation could impact investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
$-0.76
Est. Rev
$192M
Impl. Move
±7.5%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate Arrow's ability to leverage its strong position in technology distribution, particularly in emerging markets.
Supporting evidence
Arrow's recent performance shows a consistent ability to beat EPS estimates, indicating strong operational execution.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting traders expect significant volatility.
Arrow's diverse product offerings position it well to capture growth in various technology sectors.
Key risk
If revenue growth significantly outpaces expectations, it could lead to a reevaluation of the company's growth trajectory.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching Arrow's ability to maintain its earnings momentum amid a competitive technology landscape.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $2.90 or higher would confirm strong demand and operational efficiency.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $2.80 would raise concerns about the company's growth prospects.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±6.57%
Historical Avg
±4.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±8.3% while ARW has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
41.2%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors
Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.9%, with a raw directional average of +0.9% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.62%
of float
Insider
0.53%
of float
Holders
810
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
5,016,324 sh · $1.2B
9.85%
1.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Arrow beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.99% based on past performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience a muted reaction, reflecting uncertainty.
Miss
Should the company miss earnings expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.99%, as seen in previous quarters.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
3,042,032 sh · $705.8M
5.98%
1.1%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
2,994,125 sh · $694.6M
5.88%
-6.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
2,320,016 sh · $538.2M
4.56%
1.2%
AQR Capital Management, LLC
2,182,413 sh · $506.3M
4.29%
27.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.