Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$-0.93
EPS est.
$-1.18
EPS surprise
+20.85%
1-day move
-1.50%
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals reported a narrower loss than expected, which is a positive sign for investors. However, the stock fell by 1.5%, indicating that investors may have been looking for stronger revenue performance or additional insights from management. The lack of guidance and commentary may have contributed to the stock's decline.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-0.93 | $-1.15 | +20.85% |
| Revenue | — | $67M | — |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing medicines to treat serious diseases by using its proprietary RNA interference technology. With a market cap of $11 billion, Arrowhead is positioned in the healthcare sector, where innovation and advancements in drug development are crucial for addressing unmet medical needs.
Last quarter
In Q1 2026, Arrowhead reported an EPS of $0.22, which was significantly below the expected $0.60, leading to a stock decline of 5.02% the following day. The revenue details were not disclosed, leaving investors uncertain about the company's performance.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
+514.67%
Avg 1-day reaction
+1.36%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Arrowhead's upcoming earnings, with expectations of a continued focus on revenue growth despite recent misses. The consensus estimates suggest a challenging quarter ahead, but there is potential for surprises.
Bull case
If Arrowhead can exceed the EPS and revenue estimates, it could signal strong demand for its products and a turnaround in performance, potentially boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it could raise concerns about its growth trajectory and management's ability to execute on its strategy, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$-1.15Earnings per share (EPS) is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
$67MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Arrowhead's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $-1.15?
A beat on EPS could indicate improved operational efficiency and market acceptance of its products, which is crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What revenue figures will Arrowhead report, and how do they compare to the $67M consensus?
Revenue performance is critical to understanding the company's market position and growth potential, especially after recent misses.
Est. EPS
$3.70
Est. Rev
$3.9B
Impl. Move
±4.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street is overly focused on recent earnings misses and may underestimate the potential for a rebound in revenue and EPS this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a 7.8% move, suggesting traders expect significant volatility, which could indicate a potential surprise.
Insider selling activity, while concerning, does not necessarily reflect the company's long-term potential, especially if upcoming products show promise.
Key risk
If Arrowhead's revenue exceeds $75M, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's results will be pivotal in determining whether Arrowhead can recover from its recent earnings disappointments and regain investor trust.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $-1.10 or better, along with revenue exceeding $75M, would validate the bullish case.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS worse than $-1.50 and revenue below $30M would confirm the bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.8%
Historical Avg
±3.8%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 7.8%, indicating that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±7.8% while ARWR has averaged ±3.8% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
55.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich setup in Health Care
Fade rate: 5 of 5 (100%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 5 of 5 (100%) reversed within 5 days — this setup typically fades. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.8%, with a raw directional average of +3.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Arrowhead beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 7.21%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted reactions as investors await further clarity on future guidance.
Miss
Should the company miss again, history suggests a decline of about 0.52%, raising concerns about its growth strategy.
The lines on the call that would change the story.