Equity Profile

ARWR

ARROWHEAD PHARMACEUT

Health CareBiotechnology$10.3B

Aug6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ3-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative medicines to treat serious diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market presence and sustain operations.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARWR Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative medicines to treat serious diseases. With a market cap of $11 billion, it operates in the health care sector, aiming to address unmet medical needs through its RNA-targeted therapies.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+322.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.59%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q2 2026, Arrowhead reported an EPS of -$0.93, which was better than the expected -$1.18, resulting in a positive surprise of 20.85%. However, the stock price fell by 1.50% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Arrowhead's upcoming earnings are uncertain, with no analyst estimates available. Investors are likely looking for signs of improved financial performance after a series of mixed results.

Bull Case

If Arrowhead can demonstrate significant progress in its drug development pipeline and show improved financial metrics, it could lead to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again or provides weak guidance, it could further erode investor confidence and lead to a decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What specific advancements can Arrowhead report regarding its drug pipeline?

Progress in drug development is critical for investor confidence and can significantly impact stock performance.

How does Arrowhead plan to address its recent revenue fluctuations?

Understanding the company's strategy for revenue growth is essential for assessing its future financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Arrowhead's potential for a strong recovery, particularly if recent drug developments yield positive results.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 19.2% move, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility, which could indicate a potential surprise.

Insider selling activity may reflect a cautious stance, but it does not necessarily indicate a lack of confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

Key Risk

If Arrowhead reports a significant improvement in its drug pipeline, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Arrowhead's ability to turn around its financial performance and deliver on its growth promises.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a clear path to profitability with an EPS improvement to at least -$0.50.

Bear Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS worse than -$1.00, which would signal ongoing financial struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.2%

Historical Avg

±3.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while ARWR has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

50.9%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.16Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.6%, with a raw directional average of +3.0% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.7M

23,095 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.7M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 4 open-market trades

Chief Financial OfficerApel Daniel Joseph
$934,285.13

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Arrowhead beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.86%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their expectations.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a slight decline of around 0.17%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the progress of key drug candidates in the pipeline.
2Any commentary on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
3Insights into the company's strategy for managing costs and improving profitability.
4Details on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth prospects.
5Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

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Company Snapshot

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative medicines to treat serious diseases....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely watch.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth is crucial for assessing the company's ability to expand its market presence and sustain operations.

N/A

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ARWR Q3-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

25%

Avg EPS Surprise

+322.88%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.59%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Arrowhead can demonstrate significant progress in its drug development pipeline and show improved financial metrics, it could lead to a positive market reaction.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations again or provides weak guidance, it could further erode investor confidence and lead to a decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What specific advancements can Arrowhead report regarding its drug pipeline?

Progress in drug development is critical for investor confidence and can significantly impact stock performance.

How does Arrowhead plan to address its recent revenue fluctuations?

Understanding the company's strategy for revenue growth is essential for assessing its future financial health.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The market may be underestimating Arrowhead's potential for a strong recovery, particularly if recent drug developments yield positive results.

Supporting Evidence

The options market is pricing a 19.2% move, suggesting that investors expect significant volatility, which could indicate a potential surprise.

Insider selling activity may reflect a cautious stance, but it does not necessarily indicate a lack of confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

Key Risk

If Arrowhead reports a significant improvement in its drug pipeline, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around Arrowhead's ability to turn around its financial performance and deliver on its growth promises.

Bull Confirmed If

Demonstrating a clear path to profitability with an EPS improvement to at least -$0.50.

Bear Confirmed If

Reporting an EPS worse than -$1.00, which would signal ongoing financial struggles.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±19.2%

Historical Avg

±3.5%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, indicating heightened uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±21.5% while ARWR has averaged ±3.5% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

50.9%

Calls (20K)P/C Ratio: 0.16Puts (5K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$1.7M

23,095 sh

2 insiders

Net

$1.7M

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 4 open-market trades

Chief Financial OfficerApel Daniel Joseph
$934,285.13

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Arrowhead beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.86%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may experience muted movement as investors reassess their expectations.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a slight decline of around 0.17%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on the progress of key drug candidates in the pipeline.
2Any commentary on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
3Insights into the company's strategy for managing costs and improving profitability.
4Details on partnerships or collaborations that could enhance growth prospects.
5Management's outlook on market conditions and competitive landscape.