Equity Profile

ASML

ASML Holding N.V.

Information TechnologySemiconductor Materials & Equipment$672.6B

Jul15Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

ASML Holding N.V. is a leading supplier of photolithography equipment used in the semiconductor manufacturing process....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well ASML is managing costs and generating profits.

$6.88

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insights into overall sales performance and demand for ASML's products in the semiconductor market.

$8.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASML Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

ASML Holding N.V. is a leading supplier of photolithography equipment used in the semiconductor manufacturing process. As a key player in the Information Technology sector, ASML's technology is crucial for producing advanced chips that power everything from smartphones to data centers, making it a significant contributor to the ongoing digital transformation and demand for semiconductors.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+9.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-5.86%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ASML reported an EPS of $8.43, surpassing estimates by 9.27%. However, the stock declined by 2.41% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued investment in R&D to enhance product offerings.
Focus on expanding production capacity to meet growing demand.
Commitment to maintaining strong relationships with key customers.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about ASML's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. However, the stock's historical reaction to earnings beats raises concerns about potential volatility.

Bull Case

If ASML exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could signal strong demand for its technology, leading to increased investor confidence and a potential stock rally.

Bear Case

Conversely, if ASML fails to meet expectations or provides cautious guidance, it could trigger a sell-off, especially given the stock's recent performance trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$6.88

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well ASML is managing costs and generating profits.

Revenue

$8.9B

Revenue figures will provide insights into overall sales performance and demand for ASML's products in the semiconductor market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ASML's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $6.88?

A strong EPS figure would reinforce confidence in ASML's profitability and operational efficiency, potentially driving the stock higher.

What guidance will ASML provide regarding future revenue growth?

Future revenue guidance will be critical in assessing the company's outlook amid fluctuating semiconductor demand and could significantly impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the impact of ASML's recent technological advancements and their potential to drive higher-than-expected demand.

Supporting Evidence

ASML's strong track record of beating EPS estimates (88% in the last 8 quarters) suggests it may outperform again.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.

Recent insider buying activity, albeit small, could signal confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If ASML's revenue growth exceeds $9.5B, it could invalidate the cautious outlook and shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reflect ASML's ability to navigate a competitive semiconductor landscape and meet market expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $7.00 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $9.0B, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.60 or revenue falling short of $8.7B would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.1%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while ASML has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

47.4%

Calls (264K)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (555K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 4 of 9 faded and 5 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.5% (modestly negative historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ASML beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a decline of around 7.31% the following day, indicating profit-taking despite positive results.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors digest the information.

Miss

Should ASML miss estimates, history indicates a potential drop of around 4.29%, as investors may reassess the company's growth trajectory.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production capacity expansion plans.
2Insights into customer demand trends in the semiconductor market.
3Comments on R&D investments and new technology developments.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Reactions to competitive pressures in the semiconductor industry.

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Fastenal Company

Company Snapshot

ASML Holding N.V. is a leading supplier of photolithography equipment used in the semiconductor manufacturing process....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well ASML is managing costs and generating profits.

$6.88

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insights into overall sales performance and demand for ASML's products in the semiconductor market.

$8.9B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASML Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+9.76%

Avg Stock Reaction

-5.86%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, ASML reported an EPS of $8.43, surpassing estimates by 9.27%. However, the stock declined by 2.41% the following day, indicating mixed market reactions despite the earnings beat.

Management Promises & Guidance

Continued investment in R&D to enhance product offerings.
Focus on expanding production capacity to meet growing demand.
Commitment to maintaining strong relationships with key customers.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If ASML exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could signal strong demand for its technology, leading to increased investor confidence and a potential stock rally.

Bear Case

Conversely, if ASML fails to meet expectations or provides cautious guidance, it could trigger a sell-off, especially given the stock's recent performance trends.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$6.88

Earnings per share is a critical measure of profitability and will indicate how well ASML is managing costs and generating profits.

Revenue

$8.9B

Revenue figures will provide insights into overall sales performance and demand for ASML's products in the semiconductor market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will ASML's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $6.88?

A strong EPS figure would reinforce confidence in ASML's profitability and operational efficiency, potentially driving the stock higher.

What guidance will ASML provide regarding future revenue growth?

Future revenue guidance will be critical in assessing the company's outlook amid fluctuating semiconductor demand and could significantly impact stock performance.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating the impact of ASML's recent technological advancements and their potential to drive higher-than-expected demand.

Supporting Evidence

ASML's strong track record of beating EPS estimates (88% in the last 8 quarters) suggests it may outperform again.

The options market is pricing in a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for a significant reaction.

Recent insider buying activity, albeit small, could signal confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If ASML's revenue growth exceeds $9.5B, it could invalidate the cautious outlook and shift market sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is pivotal as it will reflect ASML's ability to navigate a competitive semiconductor landscape and meet market expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $7.00 or higher, coupled with revenue exceeding $9.0B, would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $6.60 or revenue falling short of $8.7B would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±15.1%

Historical Avg

±7.6%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move following the earnings report, indicating heightened uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±15.1% while ASML has averaged ±7.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

47.4%

Calls (264K)P/C Ratio: 1.17Puts (555K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Semiconductors

n=30

Fade rate: 4 of 9 (44%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If ASML beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a decline of around 7.31% the following day, indicating profit-taking despite positive results.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to minimal movement as investors digest the information.

Miss

Should ASML miss estimates, history indicates a potential drop of around 4.29%, as investors may reassess the company's growth trajectory.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on production capacity expansion plans.
2Insights into customer demand trends in the semiconductor market.
3Comments on R&D investments and new technology developments.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the next quarter.
5Reactions to competitive pressures in the semiconductor industry.