Equity Profile

ASO

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryOther Specialty Retail$3.3B

Jun9Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. is a leading retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, specializing in sporting goods and outdoor recreation products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.92

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and demand for Academy's products, which is crucial for understanding overall business health.

$1.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASO Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. is a leading retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, specializing in sporting goods and outdoor recreation products. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a significant role in the retail landscape, particularly as consumer spending patterns evolve post-pandemic.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.54%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.52%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Academy reported an EPS of $1.97, slightly missing analyst expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.70% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Academy's upcoming earnings, expecting an EPS of $0.92 and revenue of $1.4 billion. The market will be closely watching for any signs of growth or challenges in consumer spending.

Bull Case

If Academy exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could indicate strong consumer demand and effective cost management, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate a competitive retail environment, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.92

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.4B

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and demand for Academy's products, which is crucial for understanding overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Academy's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.92?

A beat on EPS could signal strong operational performance and consumer demand, which would positively influence market sentiment.

How does Academy plan to address any challenges in consumer spending?

Understanding management's strategy to navigate potential headwinds will be crucial for assessing future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Academy's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences, particularly in outdoor and sporting goods.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 10.1% move, indicating higher volatility expectations than historical averages.

The recent insider selling could suggest a strategic repositioning rather than a lack of confidence in future performance.

Key Risk

If Academy's revenue exceeds $1.5 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Academy can maintain profitability amid fluctuating consumer spending patterns.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the retail environment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.1%

Historical Avg

±5.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 10.1%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.1% while ASO has averaged ±5.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

40.9%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.95Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 15 of 28 (54%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 15 of 28 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.4% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$240,000.00

4,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$240,000.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Academy beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +4.51%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -3.54%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends, particularly in outdoor and sporting goods.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into inventory levels and supply chain challenges.
4Any plans for new product launches or marketing initiatives.
5Guidance on future quarters and how they plan to navigate potential economic headwinds.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Jun8

CPBBMO

The Campbell's Company

PreviewView

Jun8

MTNAMC

Company Snapshot

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. is a leading retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, specializing in sporting goods and outdoor recreation products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.92

Revenue

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and demand for Academy's products, which is crucial for understanding overall business health.

$1.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASO Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.54%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.52%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Academy reported an EPS of $1.97, slightly missing analyst expectations. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.70% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Academy exceeds EPS and revenue expectations, it could indicate strong consumer demand and effective cost management, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to navigate a competitive retail environment, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.92

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.4B

Revenue figures will provide insight into sales performance and demand for Academy's products, which is crucial for understanding overall business health.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will Academy's EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.92?

A beat on EPS could signal strong operational performance and consumer demand, which would positively influence market sentiment.

How does Academy plan to address any challenges in consumer spending?

Understanding management's strategy to navigate potential headwinds will be crucial for assessing future growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Academy's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences, particularly in outdoor and sporting goods.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 10.1% move, indicating higher volatility expectations than historical averages.

The recent insider selling could suggest a strategic repositioning rather than a lack of confidence in future performance.

Key Risk

If Academy's revenue exceeds $1.5 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Academy can maintain profitability amid fluctuating consumer spending patterns.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in the retail environment.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.1%

Historical Avg

±5.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 10.1%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.1% while ASO has averaged ±5.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

40.9%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.95Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 15 of 28 (54%)

Edge

Insider Activity

Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.

Bought

$0.00

0 sh

0 insiders

Sold

$240,000.00

4,000 sh

1 insider

Net

$240,000.00

Net selling

Most Active Insiders· 1 open-market trade

Insider

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Academy beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +4.51%, confirming positive market sentiment.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of approximately -3.54%, reflecting ongoing concerns about the company's performance.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on consumer demand trends, particularly in outdoor and sporting goods.
2Management's commentary on cost management strategies and their impact on margins.
3Insights into inventory levels and supply chain challenges.
4Any plans for new product launches or marketing initiatives.
5Guidance on future quarters and how they plan to navigate potential economic headwinds.