Equity Profile

ASO

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

Consumer DiscretionaryOther Specialty Retail$3.0B

Jun9Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EDT

Company Snapshot

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. is a leading retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, specializing in sporting goods and outdoor recreation products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.92

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and growth potential in a competitive retail environment.

$1.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASO Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. is a leading retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, specializing in sporting goods and outdoor recreation products. With a market cap of $3 billion, the company plays a significant role in the retail landscape, particularly as consumer spending trends shift toward outdoor activities and fitness.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.54%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.52%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Academy reported an EPS of $1.97, slightly missing the estimate of $1.99. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.70% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving inventory management.
Expansion of product offerings in outdoor categories.
Commitment to enhancing customer experience both online and in-store.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts expect a cautious outlook for Academy's upcoming earnings, with a consensus EPS of $0.92 and revenue of $1.4 billion. The market is closely watching for any signs of recovery after recent earnings misses.

Bull Case

If Academy can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate a rebound in consumer spending and improved operational efficiency.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to compete in a challenging retail environment, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.92

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.4B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and growth potential in a competitive retail environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.92?

A beat on EPS could signal improved profitability and operational efficiency, which the market is eager to see after recent misses.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will be crucial for assessing the company's ability to navigate the competitive retail landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Academy's ability to capitalize on the growing trend of outdoor activities, which could drive stronger-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

Recent consumer spending trends show increased interest in outdoor and sporting goods.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected volatility, indicating that traders are anticipating significant movement.

The company's commitment to expanding its product offerings could attract more customers.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $1.5 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Academy can recover from recent earnings misses and capitalize on consumer spending trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.1%

Historical Avg

±5.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.1% while ASO has averaged ±5.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

40.9%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.95Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 28 (57%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Consumer Discretionary in the last 2 years. 16 of 28 faded and 12 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.4% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Academy beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.5%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.5%, reinforcing concerns about the company's competitive position.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on inventory management improvements.
2Details on new product launches in outdoor categories.
3Insights into customer engagement strategies.
4Management's outlook on consumer spending trends.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the retail space.

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Company Snapshot

Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. is a leading retailer in the consumer discretionary sector, specializing in sporting goods and outdoor recreation products....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

$0.92

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and growth potential in a competitive retail environment.

$1.4B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

ASO Q1-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

38%

Avg EPS Surprise

-1.54%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.52%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, Academy reported an EPS of $1.97, slightly missing the estimate of $1.99. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 11.70% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on improving inventory management.
Expansion of product offerings in outdoor categories.
Commitment to enhancing customer experience both online and in-store.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Academy can exceed EPS estimates and show strong revenue growth, it could indicate a rebound in consumer spending and improved operational efficiency.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again, it may raise concerns about its ability to compete in a challenging retail environment, leading to further stock declines.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$0.92

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will show how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

Revenue

$1.4B

Total revenue reflects the company's sales performance and growth potential in a competitive retail environment.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $0.92?

A beat on EPS could signal improved profitability and operational efficiency, which the market is eager to see after recent misses.

What guidance will management provide regarding revenue growth?

Clear guidance on revenue growth will be crucial for assessing the company's ability to navigate the competitive retail landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may be underestimating Academy's ability to capitalize on the growing trend of outdoor activities, which could drive stronger-than-expected sales.

Supporting Evidence

Recent consumer spending trends show increased interest in outdoor and sporting goods.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected volatility, indicating that traders are anticipating significant movement.

The company's commitment to expanding its product offerings could attract more customers.

Key Risk

If revenue growth exceeds $1.5 billion, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is debating whether Academy can recover from recent earnings misses and capitalize on consumer spending trends.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $1.00 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.83 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.1%

Historical Avg

±5.2%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±10.1% while ASO has averaged ±5.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

40.9%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.95Puts (18K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Consumer Discretionary

n=30

Fade rate: 16 of 28 (57%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Academy beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 4.5%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience a muted reaction as investors await further clarity from management.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline of around 3.5%, reinforcing concerns about the company's competitive position.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on inventory management improvements.
2Details on new product launches in outdoor categories.
3Insights into customer engagement strategies.
4Management's outlook on consumer spending trends.
5Any commentary on competitive pressures in the retail space.