Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Mon, Aug 20, 2018
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±9.1%
EPS beat rate
25%
AngloGold Ashanti plc is a global gold mining company based in South Africa. With a market cap of $47 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly in gold production, which is influenced by factors like commodity prices and global economic conditions.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, AngloGold Ashanti reported an EPS of $1.98, falling short of expectations by 2.7%. Following the announcement, the stock dropped 3.66% the next day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-58.77%
Avg 1-day reaction
+3.40%
Investors are cautiously optimistic ahead of the earnings report, especially after a mixed performance in the previous quarter. The market is closely watching gold prices and production levels.
Bull case
If gold prices have remained strong and production has increased, the company could report better-than-expected earnings, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if production issues or lower gold prices are reported, it could lead to disappointing results and a further decline in stock value.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current production level compared to last quarter?
Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a critical metric for assessing performance.
Q2
How have gold prices affected margins this quarter?
Understanding the impact of gold prices on profit margins will help investors gauge the company's ability to navigate market fluctuations.
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating the impact of rising gold prices on profitability this quarter, as recent trends suggest stronger demand than anticipated.
Supporting evidence
Options are pricing a larger move than historical averages, indicating heightened expectations.
The recent drop in stock price may have created a buying opportunity if gold prices remain strong.
Key risk
If production levels come in below expectations, it could undermine the bullish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on production levels and gold prices, which are critical indicators of the company's financial health.
Bull confirmed if
A production increase of over 10% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.
Bear confirmed if
A drop in production or significant cost increases would confirm the bear case.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±9.14%
Historical Avg
±4.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±9.1% while AU has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.7%
30d HV
39.6%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If the company beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 2.86%, confirming positive market sentiment.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may see limited movement.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around 1.38%, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.