Post-earnings recap
Reported
Fri, Feb 20, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±8.8%
EPS beat rate
25%
AngloGold Ashanti plc is a global gold mining company based in the Materials sector. With a market cap of $50 billion, it plays a significant role in the gold industry, which is influenced by factors like commodity prices and global economic conditions.
Last quarter
In Q3-2025, AngloGold Ashanti reported an EPS of $1.32, slightly missing estimates by 1.49%. The stock reacted positively, gaining 7.09% the following day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
25%
Avg EPS surprise
-58.77%
Avg 1-day reaction
+3.40%
Overall, investors are cautious as there are no analyst estimates available for the upcoming earnings. The company's recent performance has shown mixed results.
Bull case
If AngloGold can demonstrate strong gold production and manage costs effectively, it may lead to positive earnings surprises, boosting investor confidence.
Bear case
Conversely, if production costs rise or gold prices fall, the company could face significant challenges, leading to disappointing earnings.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will be the gold production figures for this quarter?
Production levels directly impact revenue and profitability, making this a key focus for investors.
Q2
How has the company managed its production costs in the current environment?
Cost management is critical for maintaining margins, especially if gold prices fluctuate.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the company's ability to control production costs despite rising operational challenges.
Supporting evidence
Recent operational improvements could lead to better-than-expected production efficiency.
The current gold price environment may provide a buffer against rising costs.
Historical trends show that AngloGold has managed to surprise positively in challenging quarters.
Key risk
If production costs come in below $1,100 per ounce, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is weighing the company's ability to maintain production levels and manage costs amid changing gold prices.
Bull confirmed if
Gold production exceeding 1 million ounces this quarter would confirm the bullish case.
Bear confirmed if
Production costs rising above $1,200 per ounce would support the bearish outlook.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±7.27%
Historical Avg
±4.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±8.8% while AU has averaged ±4.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
58.2%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AngloGold beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4% based on past performance.
In line / cautious
If results are in line but cautious commentary is provided, the stock may experience a muted reaction.
Miss
Should the company miss expectations, history indicates a possible decline of around 0.4%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.