Equity Profile

AUGO

Aura Minerals Inc.

MaterialsGold$4.5B

Aug5Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2025After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Aura Minerals Inc (AUGO) is a gold mining company focused on the exploration and production of gold in the Americas. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly as gold remains a key asset during economic uncertainty.

Key Metrics to Watch

Gold Production

This metric indicates the company's ability to generate revenue and is crucial for assessing operational performance.

N/A

Cost of Production

Understanding the cost structure helps investors gauge profitability and operational efficiency.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AUGO Q4-2025 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 1Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-92.78%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.13%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2025, Aura Minerals reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.07, significantly below the expected $0.97, resulting in a 4.13% drop in stock price the following day. The company did not provide revenue figures or specific guidance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Aura Minerals are cautious following the significant EPS miss last quarter. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in production and cost management.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate improved gold production and lower costs, it could signal a turnaround, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Continued production issues or high costs could lead to further earnings misses, which would likely result in a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected gold production for Q4-2025?

Production levels are critical for revenue generation and will indicate whether the company is on track to recover from last quarter's disappointing results.

What are the projected costs of production for this quarter?

Understanding cost management will help investors assess the company's profitability and operational efficiency moving forward.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Aura's ability to recover production levels, as recent operational adjustments could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Historical patterns suggest that companies in similar situations have managed to recover quickly.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, suggesting that traders are anticipating a more volatile outcome than consensus.

The lack of recent insider selling could imply confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If gold production exceeds 50,000 ounces, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to manage production levels and costs effectively in the current gold market.

Bull Confirmed If

A gold production increase of at least 15% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If production costs exceed $1,200 per ounce, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.9%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty around the upcoming earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

72.4%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 1.18Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss setup in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 18 of 29 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 3.2%, with a raw directional average of +2.0% (modestly positive historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

26.37%

of float

Insider

47.55%

of float

Holders

198

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Capital World Investors
1,620,102 sh · $146.3M
1.93%
Flat

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Aura Minerals beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.13%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted reactions, as investors await clearer signs of recovery.

Miss

A miss on production or high costs could result in a decline similar to the previous quarter's average move of -4.13%, reinforcing negative sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on gold production targets for Q4-2025.
2Details on cost management strategies and any changes in operational efficiency.
3Any commentary on market conditions affecting gold prices.
4Insights into future growth plans and exploration activities.
5Management's outlook on the overall economic environment and its impact on operations.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Gold Production

This metric indicates the company's ability to generate revenue and is crucial for assessing operational performance.

N/A

Cost of Production

Understanding the cost structure helps investors gauge profitability and operational efficiency.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AUGO Q4-2025 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 1Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

Avg EPS Surprise

-92.78%

Avg Stock Reaction

-4.13%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, expectations for Aura Minerals are cautious following the significant EPS miss last quarter. Investors will be closely watching for any signs of recovery in production and cost management.

Bull Case

If the company can demonstrate improved gold production and lower costs, it could signal a turnaround, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.

Bear Case

Continued production issues or high costs could lead to further earnings misses, which would likely result in a negative reaction from the market.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What is the expected gold production for Q4-2025?

Production levels are critical for revenue generation and will indicate whether the company is on track to recover from last quarter's disappointing results.

What are the projected costs of production for this quarter?

Understanding cost management will help investors assess the company's profitability and operational efficiency moving forward.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Aura's ability to recover production levels, as recent operational adjustments could lead to better-than-expected results.

Supporting Evidence

Historical patterns suggest that companies in similar situations have managed to recover quickly.

Options pricing indicates a significant move, suggesting that traders are anticipating a more volatile outcome than consensus.

The lack of recent insider selling could imply confidence in the company's future performance.

Key Risk

If gold production exceeds 50,000 ounces, it could challenge the current bearish outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core thesis revolves around the company's ability to manage production levels and costs effectively in the current gold market.

Bull Confirmed If

A gold production increase of at least 15% compared to the previous quarter would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

If production costs exceed $1,200 per ounce, it would support the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±25.9%

The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in either direction, reflecting uncertainty around the upcoming earnings report.

Detail

ATM IV

0.7%

30d HV

72.4%

Calls (5K)P/C Ratio: 1.18Puts (2K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss setup in Materials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 29 (38%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

26.37%

of float

Insider

47.55%

of float

Holders

198

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Capital World Investors
1,620,102 sh · $146.3M
1.93%
Flat

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Aura Minerals beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 4.13%, confirming a positive turnaround narrative.

In-Line / Cautious

A cautious in-line report could lead to muted reactions, as investors await clearer signs of recovery.

Miss

A miss on production or high costs could result in a decline similar to the previous quarter's average move of -4.13%, reinforcing negative sentiment.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Updates on gold production targets for Q4-2025.
2Details on cost management strategies and any changes in operational efficiency.
3Any commentary on market conditions affecting gold prices.
4Insights into future growth plans and exploration activities.
5Management's outlook on the overall economic environment and its impact on operations.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime