Equity Profile
Pre-Earnings Brief
Aura Minerals Inc (AUGO) is a gold mining company focused on the exploration and production of gold and other minerals. With a market cap of $8 billion, it plays a significant role in the materials sector, particularly as gold remains a key asset during economic uncertainty.
Gold Production
Gold production levels are crucial as they directly impact revenue and profitability.
Cost per Ounce
Understanding the cost to produce each ounce of gold helps gauge operational efficiency and profitability.
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EPS Beat Streak
0Q
EPS Beat Rate
0%
Avg EPS Surprise
-92.78%
Avg Stock Reaction
-4.13%
In Q3 2025, Aura Minerals reported an earnings per share (EPS) of $0.07, significantly missing expectations of $0.97. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 4.13% the following day.
Management Promises & Guidance
Overall, expectations for Aura Minerals are cautious given the significant earnings miss last quarter. Investors will be looking for signs of recovery in production and cost management.
Bull Case
If Aura can demonstrate improved gold production and manage costs effectively, it could lead to a strong rebound in earnings and stock price.
Bear Case
Conversely, if production remains low and costs escalate, the company may continue to struggle, leading to further declines in stock value.
Gold Production
N/AGold production levels are crucial as they directly impact revenue and profitability.
Cost per Ounce
N/AUnderstanding the cost to produce each ounce of gold helps gauge operational efficiency and profitability.
Revenue Growth
N/ARevenue growth is a key indicator of the company's operational success and market demand.
Expectations
The print will turn on these two things.
Q1
What is the expected gold production for Q4 2025?
Production levels will be a key indicator of operational performance and revenue potential.
Q2
What is the projected cost per ounce of gold for the upcoming quarter?
Understanding cost management will help gauge profitability and operational efficiency.
Edge
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating the potential for a production rebound, given recent investments in operational efficiency.
Supporting Evidence
The options market indicates a significant expected move, suggesting that investors are anticipating a shift in performance.
Historical patterns show that companies in similar situations have often rebounded strongly after a miss.
Key Risk
If production levels exceed expectations, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Edge
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on production efficiency and cost management, which are critical for profitability.
Bull Confirmed If
A significant increase in gold production above previous levels would confirm the bull case.
Bear Confirmed If
A continued rise in production costs without a corresponding increase in gold prices would confirm the bear case.
Pre-Earnings Positioning
Implied Move
±13.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors are anticipating volatility around the earnings report.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
93.3%
Edge
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter miss setup in Materials
n=30Fade rate: 10 of 26 (38%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Materials in the last 2 years. 16 of 26 (62%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.1%, with a raw directional average of +2.0% (modestly positive historical bias).
Edge
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
26.37%
of float
Insider
47.55%
of float
Holders
198
institutions
Top Holders· as of Dec 2025
Capital World Investors
1,620,102 sh · $146.3M
1.93%
Flat
Blackrock Inc.
1,218,298 sh · $110.0M
1.45%
100.0%
SPX Gestao de Recursos Ltda
877,211 sh · $79.2M
1.05%
8.8%
Bank of America Corporation
685,589 sh · $61.9M
0.82%
44.8%
Marshall Wace LLP
623,662 sh · $56.3M
0.74%
32.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Preparation
Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.
Beat & Raise
If Aura beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 4.13%, confirming a recovery narrative.
In-Line / Cautious
An in-line report with cautious commentary may lead to muted reactions, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.
Miss
If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of around 4.13%, further eroding investor confidence.
Preparation
AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.
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