Post-earnings recap
Reported
Tue, May 5, 2026
EPS actual
$1.10
EPS est.
$1.08
EPS surprise
+1.85%
1-day move
+0.91%
Avista Corporation reported better-than-expected earnings per share, which contributed to a slight increase in its stock price by 0.91%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. Investors may be encouraged by the EPS beat, but the lack of revenue data and guidance could lead to cautious sentiment moving forward.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $1.10 | $1.01 | +1.85% |
| Revenue | — | $641M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
Avista Corporation (AVA) operates in the utilities sector, providing electric and natural gas services to customers in the Pacific Northwest. As a multi-utility company, it plays a crucial role in energy supply and infrastructure, which is vital for both residential and commercial sectors, especially amid growing concerns about energy sustainability and reliability.
Last quarter
In Q4 2025, Avista reported an EPS of $0.88, missing the consensus estimate of $1.01, which led to a 4.78% drop in stock price the following day. The company continues to face challenges in meeting earnings expectations.
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
50%
Avg EPS surprise
+19.57%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.71%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Avista's upcoming earnings, expecting a recovery in EPS and stable revenue. However, the company has struggled with earnings surprises in recent quarters.
Bull case
If Avista can meet or exceed the EPS estimate of $1.01, it could signal a turnaround in performance, potentially boosting investor confidence and stock price.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company misses its EPS target again, it may raise concerns about its operational efficiency and long-term growth prospects, leading to further stock declines.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$1.01Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and helps investors gauge the company's financial health.
Revenue
$641MTotal revenue reflects the company's ability to generate income from its utility services, which is critical for assessing growth.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will Avista achieve an EPS of at least $1.01 this quarter?
Meeting or exceeding this EPS target is crucial for restoring investor confidence after recent earnings misses.
Q2
What factors contributed to the revenue forecast of $641M?
Understanding the drivers behind revenue expectations will help investors assess the company's growth potential and operational efficiency.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The consensus may underestimate the potential for Avista to recover from past misses, as recent operational adjustments could lead to better-than-expected results this quarter.
Supporting evidence
Avista's historical average EPS surprise rate is 43%, indicating potential for positive surprises.
Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, hinting at market uncertainty.
The company has shown resilience in past quarters, bouncing back from earnings misses.
Key risk
If Avista's operational improvements lead to an EPS above $1.01, it could significantly challenge the current bearish sentiment.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter is critical for Avista as it seeks to recover from a series of earnings misses and demonstrate improved financial health.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $1.01 or higher would confirm a positive shift in earnings performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.98 would reinforce concerns about the company's ability to manage costs and generate profit.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.38%
Historical Avg
±2.6%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.38% in either direction, indicating uncertainty around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±3.1% while AVA has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.2%
30d HV
18.1%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
92.29%
of float
Insider
0.90%
of float
Holders
549
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
14,799,513 sh · $521.4M
17.67%
3.9%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Avista beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.15%, confirming a positive trend in earnings.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting ongoing investor uncertainty.
Miss
A miss on earnings could lead to a decline of approximately 1.89%, signaling continued operational challenges.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
7,205,516 sh · $253.9M
8.60%
3.2%
State Street Corporation
5,389,253 sh · $189.9M
6.43%
4.8%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
3,762,419 sh · $132.6M
4.49%
1.9%
ATLAS Infrastructure Partners (UK) Ltd.
2,291,179 sh · $80.7M
2.74%
100.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.