Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Dec 2, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±21.7%
EPS beat rate
38%
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) is a company in the aerospace and defense sector, specializing in unmanned aircraft systems and related technologies. As global defense spending continues to rise, AeroVironment's innovative products play a crucial role in modern military operations and surveillance.
Last quarter
In the last quarter, AeroVironment reported an EPS of $0.59, significantly surpassing estimates by 164.57%. However, the stock price fell by 5.36% the following day, suggesting mixed investor sentiment despite the strong earnings surprise.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
2Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
-2.08%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.92%
Overall, expectations for AeroVironment's upcoming earnings are cautious, given the mixed results from previous quarters. Investors are looking for signs of sustained growth and profitability.
Bull case
The optimistic view hinges on strong demand for defense technologies, leading to higher EPS and revenue growth than anticipated, potentially driving the stock price up.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet revenue expectations or shows signs of declining contract wins, it could lead to further stock price declines.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What will the EPS be for Q2-2027, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given the significant EPS surprise last quarter, investors will closely watch if this trend continues or if it reverts to lower performance.
Q2
What is the outlook for new defense contracts in the upcoming fiscal year?
The ability to secure new contracts is critical for future revenue growth, and any guidance on this will heavily influence investor sentiment.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
±11.8%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating AeroVironment's ability to secure new defense contracts, which could lead to stronger-than-expected revenue growth this quarter.
Supporting evidence
The last quarter's EPS surprise indicates operational strength that could continue.
Options pricing suggests a significant move, reflecting investor uncertainty about future performance.
Key risk
If new contract announcements exceed expectations, it could significantly alter the revenue outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether AeroVironment can sustain its recent earnings momentum or if it will face headwinds from contract fluctuations.
Bull confirmed if
An EPS of $0.75 or higher would confirm the bull case and indicate strong operational performance.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.30 would confirm the bear case, suggesting ongoing challenges in profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±11.3%
Historical Avg
±1.9%
The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 11.3%, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±21.7% while AVAV has averaged ±1.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
42.9%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Industrials
Fade rate: 9 of 30 (30%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Industrials in the last 2 years. 21 of 30 (70%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.1%, with a raw directional average of -1.7% (modestly negative historical bias).
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AeroVironment beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise, potentially confirming a positive growth trajectory.
In line / cautious
A cautious but in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors digest the implications of management's commentary.
Miss
If the company misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline in stock price, reflecting investor disappointment.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
0 buys·1 sell
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Net selling
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 2, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.