Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Thu, Nov 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±13.0%
EPS beat rate
75%
Est. EPS
$1.98
Est. Rev
$113.6B
Impl. Move
±4.0%
AvePoint, Inc. is a technology company that specializes in application software, particularly focusing on data management and collaboration solutions for businesses. As organizations increasingly rely on cloud services and digital collaboration tools, AvePoint's offerings are becoming more relevant in the information technology sector.
Last quarter
In Q2 2026, AvePoint reported an impressive EPS of $0.12, significantly surpassing expectations. However, the stock experienced a decline of 4.55% the following day, indicating mixed investor sentiment despite the positive earnings surprise.
Management promises and guidance
EPS beat streak
5Q
EPS beat rate
75%
Avg EPS surprise
-50.93%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.69%
Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about AvePoint's upcoming earnings, especially given the company's recent EPS surprises. However, the lack of specific revenue guidance may lead to uncertainty.
Bull case
If AvePoint continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and investor confidence, potentially driving the stock higher.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it may lead to a significant sell-off, especially given the recent insider selling.
Key metrics to watch
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$0.12EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and will help investors gauge financial health this quarter.
Revenue Growth
N/AWhile specific revenue estimates are not available, growth in revenue is crucial for assessing the company's market performance and operational efficiency.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected EPS for Q3-2026, and how does it compare to previous quarters?
Given AvePoint's strong EPS surprises in recent quarters, investors will closely watch this metric to gauge continued profitability.
Q2
What are the company's plans for revenue growth in the upcoming quarters?
Clear guidance on revenue growth will be critical for assessing AvePoint's market position and future potential, especially in a competitive landscape.
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating AvePoint's ability to leverage its recent product innovations for revenue growth, particularly in cloud solutions.
Supporting evidence
AvePoint's recent EPS surprises indicate strong operational performance, which may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
The options market is pricing a larger move than historical averages, suggesting that traders expect significant developments.
Key risk
If AvePoint's revenue growth exceeds expectations, it could challenge the current cautious outlook.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is debating whether AvePoint can sustain its recent earnings momentum and provide clear growth guidance amid competitive pressures.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.15 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.10 would raise concerns about profitability and could lead to a negative market reaction.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±12.28%
Historical Avg
±2.2%
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±13.0% while AVPT has averaged ±2.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.6%
30d HV
43.4%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Information Technology
Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Information Technology in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.9%, with a raw directional average of -2.4% (modestly negative historical bias).
Open-market trades by officers, directors, and 10%+ holders over the trailing 90 days.
Bought
$0.00
0 sh
0 insiders
Sold
$271,800.00
20,000 sh
1 insider
Net
$271,800.00
Net selling
Most Active Insiders· 2 open-market trades
$271,800.00
Net selling
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
68.93%
of float
Insider
19.08%
of float
Holders
344
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Anchor @ 65 Pte. Ltd.
19,910,510 sh · $284.3M
9.41%
Flat
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If AvePoint beats expectations and raises guidance, history suggests the stock could see a positive reaction, potentially around a 0.78% increase on the first day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management provides cautious commentary, the stock may react neutrally or slightly down.
Miss
A miss on EPS could lead to a decline of around 2.06% based on historical patterns, reflecting investor disappointment.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Customer Retention Rate
N/AA strong retention rate indicates customer satisfaction and the effectiveness of AvePoint's solutions, impacting future revenue.
Recent Transactions
Sep 30, 2026 · @ $14.11
10,000 sh
$141,100.00
Sep 23, 2026 · @ $13.07
10,000 sh
$130,700.00
Open-market trades only (Form 4 codes P/S). Awards, exercises, and tax-withholding excluded as routine compensation noise.
Blackrock Inc.
14,445,859 sh · $206.3M
6.83%
14.3%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
10,758,854 sh · $153.6M
5.09%
-4.9%
Morgan Stanley
8,571,409 sh · $122.4M
4.05%
7.6%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
6,467,464 sh · $92.4M
3.06%
-6.9%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.