Equity Profile

AWR

American States Water Company

UtilitiesWater Utilities$3.1B

Nov6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

American States Water Company (AWR) is a utility company that provides water and wastewater services to customers in the United States. As a player in the water utilities sector, it plays a crucial role in ensuring access to clean water, which is increasingly important given growing concerns about water scarcity and infrastructure needs.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, which is vital for long-term sustainability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AWR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, American States Water Company reported an EPS of $0.76, slightly below the estimate of $0.77, resulting in a 1.3% surprise. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.47% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for AWR's upcoming earnings are mixed, with no analyst estimates available to guide sentiment. Investors will be looking for signs of stability in earnings and revenue amidst ongoing economic pressures.

Bull Case

If AWR can report better-than-expected earnings and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal effective management and a robust business model, attracting more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if AWR misses expectations again or shows signs of declining customer numbers, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for this quarter?

Given the mixed results in previous quarters, a clear EPS number will be crucial for assessing the company's financial health and operational efficiency.

How many customers does AWR currently serve?

Customer count is vital for understanding the company's growth potential and market position, especially in a competitive utility landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for AWR to stabilize its customer base and improve margins despite recent misses. This could lead to a positive surprise.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of recovering from earnings misses, which could indicate resilience.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating that traders may be anticipating a significant change.

The utility sector's stability may provide a buffer against broader economic pressures.

Key Risk

If AWR reports an EPS above $0.80, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on AWR's ability to deliver solid earnings and maintain or grow its customer base amid economic challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings per share exceeding $0.80 would confirm the bull case, indicating improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's ability to manage costs and maintain customer growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.61%

Historical Avg

±0.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 4.61%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while AWR has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

21.9%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 9.18Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Utilities in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.8% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

82.84%

of float

Insider

0.82%

of float

Holders

501

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Blackrock Inc.
6,969,137 sh · $553.4M
17.78%
2.1%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AWR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming that the company is on a solid growth path.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.07% when expectations are not met.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer acquisition strategies and their effectiveness.
2Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on margins.
3Insights into regulatory changes that could affect operations.
4Management's outlook on future growth and market conditions.
5Any commentary on infrastructure investments and their expected returns.

See the full picture

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of profitability and will help gauge how well the company is managing costs and generating income.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, which is vital for long-term sustainability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AWR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q1-2026, American States Water Company reported an EPS of $0.76, slightly below the estimate of $0.77, resulting in a 1.3% surprise. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 0.47% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If AWR can report better-than-expected earnings and demonstrate strong revenue growth, it could signal effective management and a robust business model, attracting more investors.

Bear Case

Conversely, if AWR misses expectations again or shows signs of declining customer numbers, it may raise concerns about its long-term viability and lead to further stock price declines.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for this quarter?

Given the mixed results in previous quarters, a clear EPS number will be crucial for assessing the company's financial health and operational efficiency.

How many customers does AWR currently serve?

Customer count is vital for understanding the company's growth potential and market position, especially in a competitive utility landscape.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating the potential for AWR to stabilize its customer base and improve margins despite recent misses. This could lead to a positive surprise.

Supporting Evidence

The company has a history of recovering from earnings misses, which could indicate resilience.

Options pricing suggests a higher expected move than historical averages, indicating that traders may be anticipating a significant change.

The utility sector's stability may provide a buffer against broader economic pressures.

Key Risk

If AWR reports an EPS above $0.80, it could challenge the current bearish sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will hinge on AWR's ability to deliver solid earnings and maintain or grow its customer base amid economic challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

Earnings per share exceeding $0.80 would confirm the bull case, indicating improved profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.70 would confirm the bear case, raising concerns about the company's ability to manage costs and maintain customer growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.61%

Historical Avg

±0.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move of about 4.61%, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while AWR has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

21.9%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 9.18Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

82.84%

of float

Insider

0.82%

of float

Holders

501

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Blackrock Inc.
6,969,137 sh · $553.4M
17.78%
2.1%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AWR beats expectations, history suggests the stock could see a modest increase, confirming that the company is on a solid growth path.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may remain flat as investors digest the commentary.

Miss

A miss could lead to a decline in stock price, with historical patterns indicating an average drop of around 0.07% when expectations are not met.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer acquisition strategies and their effectiveness.
2Details on cost management initiatives and their impact on margins.
3Insights into regulatory changes that could affect operations.
4Management's outlook on future growth and market conditions.
5Any commentary on infrastructure investments and their expected returns.