Equity Profile

AWR

American States Water Company

UtilitiesWater Utilities$3.3B

Nov6Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ2-2026Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

American States Water Company (AWR) is a utility company that provides water and wastewater services. As a key player in the water utilities sector, it plays an essential role in ensuring access to clean water, which is critical for both residential and commercial customers.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, impacting overall performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AWR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q1-2026), AWR reported an EPS of $0.76, slightly missing the estimate of $0.77. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.47% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for AWR's upcoming earnings report are mixed, given the company's recent performance and lack of analyst estimates.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on potential revenue growth driven by increased customer demand and effective cost management, which could lead to a positive surprise in EPS.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic view suggests that ongoing challenges in the utility sector and potential regulatory pressures could result in disappointing earnings and revenue figures.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to the previous quarter?

Given the recent EPS miss, the market will closely scrutinize whether AWR can rebound and meet or exceed expectations.

How is customer growth trending, and what are the projections for the upcoming quarters?

Customer growth is vital for future revenue, and any insights into this area will significantly influence investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating AWR's potential for customer growth and operational efficiency improvements, which could lead to better-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

Recent historical trends show AWR has a 57% EPS beat rate, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing a 4.61% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with the company's fundamentals.

Key Risk

If customer growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a recent trend of mixed results, and investors are eager to see if the company can turn things around.

Bull Confirmed If

AWR reports an EPS of $0.80 or higher, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.75 would confirm concerns about profitability and growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.61%

Historical Avg

±0.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while AWR has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

21.9%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 9.18Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Utilities in the last 2 years. 14 of 30 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of -0.8% (modestly negative historical bias).

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

82.84%

of float

Insider

0.82%

of float

Holders

501

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Blackrock Inc.
6,969,137 sh · $553.4M
17.78%
2.1%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AWR beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +0.91%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If AWR misses earnings expectations, the stock could see a decline, with history suggesting an average move of +0.07% in such cases.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer acquisition strategies and their effectiveness.
2Insights into cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
3Management's outlook on regulatory challenges and how they plan to address them.
4Details on any new projects or investments that could drive future growth.
5Comments on overall market conditions and their effect on demand for water services.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a crucial indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its customer base and increase sales, impacting overall performance.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AWR Q2-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

50%

Avg EPS Surprise

+1.52%

Avg Stock Reaction

-0.43%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter (Q1-2026), AWR reported an EPS of $0.76, slightly missing the estimate of $0.77. The stock reacted negatively, declining by 0.47% the following day.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for AWR's upcoming earnings report are mixed, given the company's recent performance and lack of analyst estimates.

Bull Case

The optimistic view hinges on potential revenue growth driven by increased customer demand and effective cost management, which could lead to a positive surprise in EPS.

Bear Case

Conversely, the pessimistic view suggests that ongoing challenges in the utility sector and potential regulatory pressures could result in disappointing earnings and revenue figures.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be this quarter, and how does it compare to the previous quarter?

Given the recent EPS miss, the market will closely scrutinize whether AWR can rebound and meet or exceed expectations.

How is customer growth trending, and what are the projections for the upcoming quarters?

Customer growth is vital for future revenue, and any insights into this area will significantly influence investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating AWR's potential for customer growth and operational efficiency improvements, which could lead to better-than-expected EPS.

Supporting Evidence

Recent historical trends show AWR has a 57% EPS beat rate, suggesting potential for positive surprises.

The options market is pricing a 4.61% move, indicating expectations for volatility that may not align with the company's fundamentals.

Key Risk

If customer growth exceeds expectations, it could significantly alter the earnings outlook.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is critical as it follows a recent trend of mixed results, and investors are eager to see if the company can turn things around.

Bull Confirmed If

AWR reports an EPS of $0.80 or higher, indicating strong operational performance.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.75 would confirm concerns about profitability and growth.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.61%

Historical Avg

±0.9%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±4.6% while AWR has averaged ±0.9% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.2%

30d HV

21.9%

Calls (200)P/C Ratio: 9.18Puts (14K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Utilities

n=30

Fade rate: 14 of 30 (47%)

Edge

Institutional Ownership

Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.

Top holders adding

Institutional

82.84%

of float

Insider

0.82%

of float

Holders

501

institutions

Top Holders· as of Dec 2025

Blackrock Inc.
6,969,137 sh · $553.4M
17.78%
2.1%

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AWR beats expectations, history suggests a potential average move of +0.91%, confirming a positive outlook for the company.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

If AWR misses earnings expectations, the stock could see a decline, with history suggesting an average move of +0.07% in such cases.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on customer acquisition strategies and their effectiveness.
2Insights into cost management initiatives and their impact on profitability.
3Management's outlook on regulatory challenges and how they plan to address them.
4Details on any new projects or investments that could drive future growth.
5Comments on overall market conditions and their effect on demand for water services.