Equity Profile

AX

Axos Financial, Inc.

FinancialsRegional Banks$5.6B

Jul30Thu

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ4-2026After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Axos Financial, Inc. is a regional bank that offers a range of financial services, including banking and lending products....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and attract new customers, which is vital for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AX Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Axos Financial, Inc. is a regional bank that offers a range of financial services, including banking and lending products. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a crucial role in providing accessible financial solutions to consumers and businesses, especially in a competitive landscape where digital banking is becoming increasingly important.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.27%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.71%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q3-2026, Axos Financial reported an EPS of $1.90, which was below the expected $2.13, resulting in a 10.8% negative surprise. Despite this miss, the stock rose by 1.62% the following day, suggesting some resilience in investor sentiment.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall expectations for Axos Financial's upcoming earnings are mixed, with investors hoping for a rebound in EPS after last quarter's miss. The market is keen to see if the company can deliver strong revenue growth and improve loan performance.

Bull Case

If Axos can exceed EPS expectations and show solid revenue growth, it could signal a strong recovery and attract more investors, driving the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again or shows weakness in loan growth, it could raise concerns about its growth trajectory and lead to a decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026, and can it exceed analyst expectations?

Given the recent miss in Q3-2026, a strong EPS performance could help restore investor confidence and indicate a turnaround.

How is loan growth trending, and what are the expectations for future lending?

Loan growth is critical for profitability in banking; any signs of weakness could raise concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Axos's potential for a strong rebound in EPS, given its history of beating expectations in previous quarters.

Supporting Evidence

Axos has an 88% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, suggesting a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations.

The options market is pricing a 2.41% move, indicating that investors are bracing for volatility, which could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If loan growth shows significant improvement, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a positive reassessment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a disappointing earnings report, and the market is looking for signs of improvement.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.15 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery in earnings.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.85 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges for the company.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.41%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 2.41% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±2.4% while AX has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.1%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.89Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 19 of 30 (63%) held or extended their move within 5 days — this setup typically holds direction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.7%, with a raw directional average of +0.1% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Axos beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.58%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to a muted response.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.62%, raising concerns about its growth trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and demand for credit products.
2Management's outlook on future earnings and profitability.
3Details on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
4Insights into customer acquisition and retention strategies.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting the banking sector.

See the full picture

AI-powered briefs, options data, and 20 quarters of history — everything you need before earnings.

No charge today · Auto-bills $8/mo after 7 days · Cancel anytime

More Earnings This Week

5 Reports

Jul27

KRCAMC

Kilroy Realty Corporation

PreviewView

Jul27

PIIAMC

Company Snapshot

Axos Financial, Inc. is a regional bank that offers a range of financial services, including banking and lending products....

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and performance, which investors closely monitor.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its business and attract new customers, which is vital for long-term success.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AX Q4-2026 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

88%

Avg EPS Surprise

+4.27%

Avg Stock Reaction

+0.71%

Last Quarter Recap

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If Axos can exceed EPS expectations and show solid revenue growth, it could signal a strong recovery and attract more investors, driving the stock price higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company misses expectations again or shows weakness in loan growth, it could raise concerns about its growth trajectory and lead to a decline in stock price.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will the EPS be for Q4-2026, and can it exceed analyst expectations?

Given the recent miss in Q3-2026, a strong EPS performance could help restore investor confidence and indicate a turnaround.

How is loan growth trending, and what are the expectations for future lending?

Loan growth is critical for profitability in banking; any signs of weakness could raise concerns about the company's growth prospects.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may be underestimating Axos's potential for a strong rebound in EPS, given its history of beating expectations in previous quarters.

Supporting Evidence

Axos has an 88% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters, suggesting a strong likelihood of exceeding expectations.

The options market is pricing a 2.41% move, indicating that investors are bracing for volatility, which could favor a positive outcome.

Key Risk

If loan growth shows significant improvement, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment and lead to a positive reassessment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance is crucial as it follows a disappointing earnings report, and the market is looking for signs of improvement.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2.15 or higher would confirm the bull case and suggest a strong recovery in earnings.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $1.85 would confirm the bear case, indicating ongoing challenges for the company.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±2.41%

Historical Avg

±1.0%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 2.41% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.

Options are pricing ±2.4% while AX has averaged ±1.0% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.4%

30d HV

39.1%

Calls (2K)P/C Ratio: 0.89Puts (0)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter miss + options pricing rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 11 of 30 (37%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Axos beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 0.58%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If the results are in line with expectations, the market may react cautiously, leading to a muted response.

Miss

If the company misses again, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.62%, raising concerns about its growth trajectory.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and demand for credit products.
2Management's outlook on future earnings and profitability.
3Details on cost management and operational efficiency improvements.
4Insights into customer acquisition and retention strategies.
5Any commentary on macroeconomic factors affecting the banking sector.