Equity Profile

AZN

AstraZeneca PLC

Health CarePharmaceuticals$288.4B

Feb10Tue

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2018Pre-Market9:00 AM EST

Company Snapshot

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) is a global biopharmaceutical company focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of prescription medicines. Operating in the health care sector, AstraZeneca plays a crucial role in addressing various medical needs, particularly in oncology, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases.

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and can significantly influence investor sentiment.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and is vital for long-term sustainability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AZN Q1-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+72.85%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.24%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, AstraZeneca reported strong earnings, exceeding analyst expectations with an EPS of $1.30, which was a 66% surprise. However, there was no revenue data available for comparison.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding its oncology portfolio.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.
Plans to enhance research and development capabilities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about AstraZeneca's upcoming earnings report, given its strong historical performance. However, uncertainty remains due to the lack of recent analyst estimates.

Bull Case

If AstraZeneca continues to beat EPS expectations and demonstrates solid revenue growth, it could reinforce investor confidence and drive the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides disappointing guidance, it could lead to a decline in stock price, especially given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for this quarter?

Given the company's strong history of EPS surprises, this number will be critical in shaping market expectations.

What new drug approvals or pipeline updates will be discussed?

Updates on new drugs can significantly impact future revenue and investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate AstraZeneca's ability to leverage its recent drug approvals for significant revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, AstraZeneca has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting potential for another surprise.

The options market is pricing a 4.3% move, indicating uncertainty that may not reflect the company's strong fundamentals.

Key Risk

If AstraZeneca reports an EPS significantly above $1.30, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching AstraZeneca's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and manage investor expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS exceeding $1.30 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.78 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.3%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.3% in either direction, indicating uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.3% while AZN has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.7%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (91K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. 13 of 29 faded and 16 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 5.5%, with a raw directional average of +2.9% (modestly positive historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AstraZeneca beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.01%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.06%, indicating market disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new drug approvals and their expected market impact.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into the oncology portfolio's performance.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Responses to questions about competitive pressures in the pharmaceutical industry.

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Company Snapshot

Key Metrics to Watch

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key indicator of the company's profitability and can significantly influence investor sentiment.

N/A

Revenue Growth

Revenue growth reflects the company's ability to expand its market presence and is vital for long-term sustainability.

N/A

1 more metrics, Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

AZN Q1-2018 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+72.85%

Avg Stock Reaction

-1.24%

Last Quarter Recap

In the last quarter, AstraZeneca reported strong earnings, exceeding analyst expectations with an EPS of $1.30, which was a 66% surprise. However, there was no revenue data available for comparison.

Management Promises & Guidance

Focus on expanding its oncology portfolio.
Commitment to improving operational efficiency.
Plans to enhance research and development capabilities.

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Bull Case

If AstraZeneca continues to beat EPS expectations and demonstrates solid revenue growth, it could reinforce investor confidence and drive the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the company fails to meet expectations or provides disappointing guidance, it could lead to a decline in stock price, especially given the recent volatility.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

What will be the reported EPS for this quarter?

Given the company's strong history of EPS surprises, this number will be critical in shaping market expectations.

What new drug approvals or pipeline updates will be discussed?

Updates on new drugs can significantly impact future revenue and investor sentiment.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The Street may underestimate AstraZeneca's ability to leverage its recent drug approvals for significant revenue growth this quarter.

Supporting Evidence

Historically, AstraZeneca has consistently beaten EPS estimates, suggesting potential for another surprise.

The options market is pricing a 4.3% move, indicating uncertainty that may not reflect the company's strong fundamentals.

Key Risk

If AstraZeneca reports an EPS significantly above $1.30, it could challenge the current cautious sentiment.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The market is closely watching AstraZeneca's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and manage investor expectations.

Bull Confirmed If

A reported EPS exceeding $1.30 would confirm the bull case.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $0.78 would confirm the bear case.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±4.3%

Historical Avg

±4.2%

In line with history

The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 4.3% in either direction, indicating uncertainty ahead of the earnings report.

Options are pricing ±4.3% while AZN has averaged ±4.2% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.

Detail

ATM IV

0.3%

30d HV

20.7%

Calls (35K)P/C Ratio: 1.14Puts (91K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Health Care

n=30

Fade rate: 13 of 29 (45%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If AstraZeneca beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around 1.01%, confirming a positive outlook.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.

Miss

Should the company miss expectations, history suggests a potential decline of about 1.06%, indicating market disappointment.

Preparation

Congressional Activity

House & Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.

Trades

1 buy·0 sells

Members

House only

Est. Notional

$1,001.00–$15,000.00

disclosed dollar ranges

Most Active Members

D-CAGilbert CisnerosRep.
1

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on new drug approvals and their expected market impact.
2Management's commentary on operational efficiency improvements.
3Insights into the oncology portfolio's performance.
4Guidance on revenue expectations for the upcoming quarters.
5Responses to questions about competitive pressures in the pharmaceutical industry.