Pre-earnings brief
Reports
Wed, Nov 5, 2008
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±3.6%
EPS beat rate
38%
Credicorp Ltd. is a leading financial services company in the diversified banking sector, primarily operating in Peru. With a market cap of $30 billion, it plays a crucial role in providing banking, insurance, and investment services, making it a key player in the region's economic landscape.
Last quarter
In Q1 2018, Credicorp reported an EPS of $13.01, but no analyst estimates were available for comparison. The stock reacted negatively, dropping 2.92% the next day.
EPS beat streak
0Q
EPS beat rate
38%
Avg EPS surprise
+4.83%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.05%
Overall expectations for Credicorp's upcoming earnings are uncertain due to the lack of analyst estimates and management guidance. Investors will be looking for signs of growth in key financial metrics.
Bull case
If Credicorp shows strong loan growth and improved net interest income, it could signal robust demand for its services, leading to a positive stock reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the bank reports a high non-performing loans ratio or weak loan growth, it could raise concerns about its financial stability and lead to a decline in the stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the current loan growth rate compared to last quarter?
This will provide insight into the bank's ability to attract new customers and expand its lending operations.
Q2
What is the non-performing loans ratio for this quarter?
A higher ratio could indicate potential risks to the bank's earnings and overall financial health.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate the potential for loan growth due to recent economic trends in Peru, which could positively impact Credicorp's performance.
Supporting evidence
The bank's historical track record shows resilience in loan growth even during economic downturns.
Options pricing suggests a larger move than what has been typical, indicating that investors may be overly cautious.
Recent economic indicators in Peru point towards increased consumer spending, which could drive demand for loans.
Key risk
If loan growth exceeds 10%, it could invalidate the current cautious sentiment in the market.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on the bank's ability to manage loan growth and maintain a healthy loan portfolio.
Bull confirmed if
A loan growth rate exceeding 10% would confirm strong demand for Credicorp's services.
Bear confirmed if
A non-performing loans ratio above 3% would raise significant concerns about credit quality.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±3.6%
Historical Avg
±1.1%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 3.6% in either direction following the earnings report, indicating some uncertainty among investors.
Options are pricing ±3.6% while BAP has averaged ±1.1% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
0.3%
30d HV
21.2%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
80.97%
of float
Insider
14.62%
of float
Holders
680
institutions
Top Holders· as of Dec 2025
Blackrock Inc.
4,048,826 sh · $1.3B
4.29%
2.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If Credicorp beats expectations with strong loan growth, history suggests the stock could rise by around 1.5% on the first day.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations but management is cautious, the stock may see little movement as investors digest the commentary.
Miss
If the bank misses on key metrics, history suggests a potential decline of around 2.9% based on past reactions.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Dodge & Cox Inc.
3,870,940 sh · $1.3B
4.10%
-21.0%
FMR, LLC
3,457,232 sh · $1.1B
3.66%
-3.0%
Massachusetts Financial Services Co.
2,866,393 sh · $927.7M
3.04%
-5.7%
Capital World Investors
2,195,404 sh · $710.5M
2.33%
34.7%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.