Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, Feb 5, 2026
Est. EPS
—
Est. revenue
—
Implied move
±28.7%
EPS beat rate
88%
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) is a major financial institution based in Spain, providing a range of banking services including retail banking, corporate banking, and investment services. As a diversified bank, BBVA plays a crucial role in the financial sector, particularly in Europe and Latin America, where it supports consumer spending and economic growth.
Last quarter
In Q3-2025, BBVA reported an EPS of $0.49, slightly beating expectations of $0.47. The stock experienced a minor decline of 1.82% the following day, reflecting mixed investor sentiment.
EPS beat streak
6Q
EPS beat rate
88%
Avg EPS surprise
+35.71%
Avg 1-day reaction
+3.84%
Overall, investors are cautiously optimistic about BBVA's upcoming earnings, given its strong track record of beating EPS estimates. However, the lack of detailed guidance leaves some uncertainty.
Bull case
If BBVA continues its trend of beating EPS estimates and shows strong loan growth, it could signal robust demand and profitability, leading to a positive market reaction.
Bear case
Conversely, if the bank fails to meet expectations or shows signs of slowing loan growth, it could lead to a significant drop in investor confidence and stock price.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
What is the expected loan growth rate for Q4-2025?
Loan growth is a critical indicator of demand and can significantly impact BBVA's profitability and stock performance.
Q2
How has the net interest margin changed compared to previous quarters?
Changes in net interest margin can provide insights into the bank's profitability and its ability to manage interest rate risks.
—
Est. EPS
—
Est. Rev
—
Impl. Move
—
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may underestimate BBVA's ability to maintain strong loan growth despite economic headwinds, as its diversified operations provide resilience.
Supporting evidence
BBVA has consistently beaten EPS estimates, indicating stronger-than-expected performance.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that investors anticipate a more volatile reaction than historical averages.
Recent economic indicators show a rebound in consumer spending, which could positively impact loan demand.
Key risk
If loan growth comes in below 3%, it could challenge the optimistic outlook and lead to a reassessment of the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance hinges on loan growth and net interest margins, which are critical for assessing BBVA's financial health.
Bull confirmed if
A loan growth rate exceeding 5% would confirm strong demand and support a bullish outlook.
Bear confirmed if
If net interest margin declines below 2.5%, it would raise concerns about profitability.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±28.72%
Historical Avg
±4.3%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move in BBVA's stock following the earnings report, indicating heightened volatility expectations.
Options are pricing ±28.7% while BBVA has averaged ±4.3% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
30d HV
38.9%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
3.49%
of float
Insider
0.02%
of float
Holders
624
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Morgan Stanley
13,132,187 sh · $344.7M
0.24%
1.8%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If BBVA beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by around 2.9%, confirming strong demand and profitability.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see a muted reaction as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential drop of around 3.98%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
Fisher Asset Management, LLC
11,565,268 sh · $303.6M
0.21%
-61.1%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc
11,933,933 sh · $313.3M
0.21%
0.6%
Dimensional Fund Advisors LP
10,346,713 sh · $271.6M
0.19%
0.1%
FMR, LLC
8,870,426 sh · $232.8M
0.16%
4.2%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.