Post-earnings recap
Reported
Wed, May 6, 2026
EPS actual
$-2.98
EPS est.
$0.06
EPS surprise
-5066.67%
1-day move
-2.21%
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals reported a significant miss on EPS, which contributed to a 2.21% decline in stock price. The company did not provide revenue figures or guidance, leaving investors with limited insight into future performance. The large EPS miss indicates potential challenges in managing costs or revenue generation.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $-2.98 | $0.11 | -5066.67% |
| Revenue | — | $151M | — |
No transcript is on record for the earnings call, so the analysis is based solely on numerical results.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing innovative medicines for rare diseases. With a market cap of $2 billion, it operates in the health care sector, where advancements in drug development can significantly impact patient care and market dynamics.
Last quarter
In Q4-2025, BioCryst reported an impressive EPS of $1.12, significantly exceeding expectations. The stock reacted positively, gaining 4.64% the following day.
EPS beat streak
1Q
EPS beat rate
63%
Avg EPS surprise
-340.96%
Avg 1-day reaction
+0.90%
Analysts are cautiously optimistic about BioCryst's upcoming earnings, expecting a modest EPS of $0.11 and revenue of $151 million. The company has shown a strong track record of beating earnings estimates recently.
Bull case
If BioCryst continues its trend of exceeding earnings expectations, it could see a strong stock price increase, especially given its recent performance.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet these expectations, particularly after such a strong prior quarter, it could lead to a significant drop in stock value.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
$0.11Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health.
Revenue
$151MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its products.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will BioCryst achieve an EPS of at least $0.11?
This figure is crucial as it sets the tone for investor confidence and market perception of the company's growth potential.
Q2
What are the revenue figures for this quarter?
Revenue performance will indicate the demand for BioCryst's products and its overall market position.
—
Est. EPS
$0.01
Est. Rev
$918M
Impl. Move
±9.1%
Why consensus could be wrong
The Street may be underestimating BioCryst's ability to maintain its recent earnings momentum, given its strong track record of exceeding expectations.
Supporting evidence
The company has a 75% EPS beat rate over the last eight quarters.
Options pricing suggests a smaller move than historical averages, indicating potential undervaluation of volatility.
Recent performance indicates a trend of strong revenue growth that may not be fully reflected in current estimates.
Key risk
If the EPS comes in below $0.10, it could undermine the positive sentiment surrounding the stock.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
The market is closely watching BioCryst's ability to maintain its recent earnings momentum and revenue growth.
Bull confirmed if
Achieving an EPS of $0.14 or higher would confirm strong operational performance and investor confidence.
Bear confirmed if
An EPS below $0.10 would signal potential issues in revenue generation or market demand.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±8.55%
Historical Avg
±8.7%
The options market is pricing in a potential move of about 8.55%, indicating that traders expect some volatility around the earnings report.
Options are pricing ±7.9% while BCRX has averaged ±8.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is roughly in line with history.
ATM IV
0.8%
30d HV
41.5%
Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.
Prior-quarter beat + options pricing cheap in Health Care
Fade rate: X of Y (Z%)
This setup has occurred 30 times across Health Care in the last 2 years. The average absolute 1-day move is 4.1%, with a raw directional average of +1.7% (modestly positive historical bias).
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
105.31%
of float
Insider
1.28%
of float
Holders
418
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
23,893,036 sh · $200.7M
9.35%
5.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If BioCryst beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of about 9.51%, confirming the company's growth trajectory.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may see muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline of around 11.40%, reflecting disappointment in the company's performance.
House and Senate STOCK Act disclosures over the trailing 6 months.
Trades
1
1 buy·0 sells
Members
1
House only
Est. Notional
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
disclosed dollar ranges
Most Active Members
1 trade
The lines on the call that would change the story.
RA Capital Management, L.P.
15,827,186 sh · $132.9M
6.19%
Flat
State Street Corporation
15,191,098 sh · $127.6M
5.94%
24.4%
Deerfield Management Company, L.P
15,096,403 sh · $126.8M
5.91%
0.4%
Vanguard Capital Management LLC
11,364,236 sh · $95.5M
4.45%
2.0%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.
Net buying
Recent Transactions
Traded Jul 10, 2026 · disclosed Sep 4, 2026
$1,001.00–$15,000.00
Filed 30–45+ days after the trade. Treat as positional context, not a leading indicator. Amounts are SEC-mandated dollar ranges, not exact values.