Post-earnings recap
Reported
Thu, May 7, 2026
EPS actual
$0.68
EPS est.
$0.09
EPS surprise
+672.73%
1-day move
+1.59%
BILL Holdings, Inc. reported a strong earnings per share that significantly exceeded expectations, which contributed to a positive stock reaction, with shares rising by 1.59%. However, there was no revenue figure reported, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance. The lack of guidance may lead investors to remain cautious as they assess future growth prospects.
| Metric | Actual | Expected | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.68 | $0.55 | +672.73% |
| Revenue | — | $402M | — |
No transcript is on record, and the analysis is based on numerical results only.
BILL Holdings, Inc. operates in the Information Technology sector, focusing on application software that helps businesses manage their finances more efficiently. With a market cap of $4 billion, the company plays a significant role in the growing trend of digital financial solutions, which are increasingly important for businesses looking to streamline operations and reduce costs.
Last quarter
In Q2-2026, BILL reported an impressive EPS of $0.64, significantly exceeding analyst expectations. However, the stock fell by 4.16% the following day, indicating possible profit-taking or market skepticism despite the strong earnings.
EPS beat streak
8Q
EPS beat rate
100%
Avg EPS surprise
+1213.07%
Avg 1-day reaction
-0.52%
Analysts are generally optimistic about BILL's upcoming earnings, expecting solid performance in both EPS and revenue. The company has a strong track record of beating earnings expectations, which could lead to positive sentiment.
Bull case
If BILL continues its trend of beating EPS estimates, it could see a significant uptick in stock price, especially if revenue also exceeds expectations.
Bear case
Conversely, if the company fails to meet even the lowered expectations, it could face a sharp decline in stock price, particularly given the high implied volatility in the options market.
Key metrics to watch
EPS
0.55Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and financial health, which investors closely monitor.
Revenue
402MRevenue figures provide insight into the company's sales performance and market demand for its software solutions.
The print will turn on these.
Q1
Will BILL's EPS exceed $0.55 as anticipated?
Given the company's strong history of beating EPS estimates, this number will be crucial for investor confidence.
Q2
What will the revenue figure be relative to the $402 million consensus?
Revenue performance will indicate demand for BILL's products and overall business health, impacting future growth expectations.
Est. EPS
$3.70
Est. Rev
$3.9B
Impl. Move
±4.7%
Why consensus could be wrong
The market may be underestimating BILL's ability to sustain high growth rates, especially given its recent earnings surprises.
Supporting evidence
BILL has consistently beaten EPS estimates, with a 100% beat rate over the last eight quarters.
The options market is pricing in a significant move, indicating that investors are bracing for volatility.
Despite strong earnings, the stock has reacted negatively, suggesting that current sentiment may not fully reflect the company's growth potential.
Key risk
If BILL's revenue significantly exceeds $402 million, it could challenge current bearish sentiment and shift market expectations.
Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.
This quarter's performance is critical as it will either reinforce the company's growth narrative or raise concerns about its future prospects.
Bull confirmed if
BILL needs to report EPS growth above $0.55 and revenue exceeding $402 million to confirm bullish sentiment.
Bear confirmed if
A miss on EPS or revenue could signal underlying issues, confirming bearish sentiment.
What the market is pricing for the move.
Implied Move
±15.45%
Historical Avg
±2.6%
The options market is pricing in a significant potential move, indicating that investors expect volatility around the earnings announcement.
Options are pricing ±15.5% while BILL has averaged ±2.6% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.
ATM IV
4.3%
30d HV
48.5%
Smart-money positioning from the most recent 13F filings.
Institutional
118.03%
of float
Insider
4.23%
of float
Holders
463
institutions
Top Holders· as of Jun 2026
Blackrock Inc.
8,735,197 sh · $384.3M
10.24%
4.5%
Likely market behavior by outcome. Not investment advice.
Beat & raise
If BILL beats expectations, history suggests a potential average one-day move of +2.31%, confirming strong market confidence.
In line / cautious
If results are in line with expectations, the stock may experience muted movement as investors await further guidance.
Miss
A miss could lead to a decline, with historical patterns suggesting a potential average one-day drop of -0.42%.
The lines on the call that would change the story.
ER Collective Holdings, LLC
8,518,300 sh · $374.8M
9.99%
Flat
Starboard Value LP
7,025,748 sh · $309.1M
8.24%
0.0%
Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC
5,688,580 sh · $250.3M
6.67%
0.1%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
5,558,053 sh · $244.6M
6.52%
96.1%
13F filings updated quarterly. Position deltas show change in shares vs. the prior quarter.