Equity Profile

BMA

Banco Macro S.A.

FinancialsDiversified Banks$5.8B

Aug26Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2024After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a diversified bank in Argentina, providing a range of financial services including retail and corporate banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the bank's profitability and financial health.

$2170.18

Revenue

Revenue figures will help gauge the bank's growth and ability to generate income from its operations.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a diversified bank in Argentina, providing a range of financial services including retail and corporate banking. With a market cap of $6 billion, it plays a significant role in the financial sector, particularly as consumer spending and economic conditions fluctuate in the region.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2023, Banco Macro reported an impressive EPS of $8.89, significantly exceeding estimates. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Banco Macro's upcoming earnings, expecting strong EPS driven by previous performance. However, the lack of management guidance may lead to uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Banco Macro beats EPS estimates again, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to a sell-off.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2170.18

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the bank's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Revenue figures will help gauge the bank's growth and ability to generate income from its operations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A strong EPS performance would reinforce investor confidence and could lead to a positive stock reaction.

What insights can be shared regarding revenue performance this quarter?

Understanding revenue trends will be crucial for assessing the bank's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Banco Macro's ability to leverage its strong prior performance, as recent trends suggest a potential for continued growth despite economic challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The bank's EPS surprise rate is 75%, indicating a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant volatility.

The lack of management guidance may lead to conservative estimates that do not reflect the bank's operational strengths.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $2,003.90, it could significantly alter investor sentiment and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it could set the tone for future growth and investor sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2,200 or higher would confirm strong profitability and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2,003.90 would indicate potential struggles in maintaining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.49%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.26%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await more clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the bank misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -2.75%, raising concerns about its growth outlook.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on revenue growth and its drivers.
2Insights into cost management and operational efficiency.
3Updates on market conditions affecting consumer lending.
4Details on any strategic initiatives or new products.
5Management's outlook on the economic environment and its impact on future performance.

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Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a diversified bank in Argentina, providing a range of financial services including retail and corporate banking....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the bank's profitability and financial health.

$2170.18

Revenue

Revenue figures will help gauge the bank's growth and ability to generate income from its operations.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2023, Banco Macro reported an impressive EPS of $8.89, significantly exceeding estimates. However, revenue details were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty about overall performance.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are cautiously optimistic about Banco Macro's upcoming earnings, expecting strong EPS driven by previous performance. However, the lack of management guidance may lead to uncertainty.

Bull Case

If Banco Macro beats EPS estimates again, it could signal strong operational efficiency and market demand, potentially boosting investor confidence.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank fails to meet expectations or provides weak guidance, it could raise concerns about its growth prospects and lead to a sell-off.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2170.18

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the bank's profitability and financial health.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Revenue figures will help gauge the bank's growth and ability to generate income from its operations.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A strong EPS performance would reinforce investor confidence and could lead to a positive stock reaction.

What insights can be shared regarding revenue performance this quarter?

Understanding revenue trends will be crucial for assessing the bank's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

The consensus may underestimate Banco Macro's ability to leverage its strong prior performance, as recent trends suggest a potential for continued growth despite economic challenges.

Supporting Evidence

The bank's EPS surprise rate is 75%, indicating a strong track record of exceeding expectations.

Options pricing suggests a larger move than historical averages, indicating potential for significant volatility.

The lack of management guidance may lead to conservative estimates that do not reflect the bank's operational strengths.

Key Risk

If EPS comes in below $2,003.90, it could significantly alter investor sentiment and expectations.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

This quarter's performance will be closely watched as it could set the tone for future growth and investor sentiment.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2,200 or higher would confirm strong profitability and operational efficiency.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2,003.90 would indicate potential struggles in maintaining profitability.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.49%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting traders anticipate volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests a potential stock increase of around +2.26%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

An in-line report may lead to muted reactions, as investors await more clarity on future guidance.

Miss

If the bank misses expectations, history suggests a potential decline of around -2.75%, raising concerns about its growth outlook.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any commentary on revenue growth and its drivers.
2Insights into cost management and operational efficiency.
3Updates on market conditions affecting consumer lending.
4Details on any strategic initiatives or new products.
5Management's outlook on the economic environment and its impact on future performance.