Equity Profile

BMA

Banco Macro S.A.

FinancialsDiversified Banks$5.6B

Aug26Wed

Pre-Earnings Brief

UpcomingQ1-2024After Close5:00 PM EDT

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a major player in the financial sector, focusing on diversified banking services in Argentina....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and overall financial health.

$2170.18

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing growth.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a major player in the financial sector, focusing on diversified banking services in Argentina. With a market cap of $5 billion, it plays a crucial role in the country's economy, serving both individual and business clients.

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2023, Banco Macro reported an impressive EPS of $8.89, significantly beating expectations by 340%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about Banco Macro's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. The stock has shown a tendency to react positively to earnings beats.

Bull Case

If Banco Macro exceeds EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and growth, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank misses expectations, it may raise concerns about its financial stability and future growth prospects, leading to a decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2170.18

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and overall financial health.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in the bank's profitability and operational efficiency.

What will be the reported revenue figure compared to the consensus of $1193.6B?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding the bank's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

While the consensus expects solid earnings, the market may be underestimating potential headwinds from economic factors affecting the banking sector.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 10.49% move, indicating higher volatility than historical averages.

The bank's recent EPS surprises show a pattern of inconsistency, which could lead to unexpected results.

Key Risk

If the reported EPS falls below $2,003.90, it could undermine confidence in the bank's growth narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Banco Macro can sustain its recent profitability and revenue growth amid economic challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2,200 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2,003.90 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential weaknesses in financial performance.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.49%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

This setup has occurred 30 times across Financials in the last 2 years. 12 of 25 faded and 13 held — no strong directional bias after the initial reaction. The average absolute 1-day move is 2.4%, with a raw directional average of -0.0% (roughly flat historical bias).

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 2.26%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

If the bank misses estimates, the stock could decline by approximately 2.75%, raising concerns about its financial stability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and credit quality.
2Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the banking sector.
3Details on cost management and efficiency initiatives.
4Insights into customer demand and market competition.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes impacting operations.

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Company Snapshot

Banco Macro S.A. is a major player in the financial sector, focusing on diversified banking services in Argentina....

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and overall financial health.

$2170.18

Revenue

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing growth.

$1193.6B

Wall Street expectations, options signals, track record, and call prep available with Pro.

BMA Q1-2024 Earnings Preview

Context

Company Snapshot

Earnings Scorecard·Last 8Q

EPS Beat Streak

EPS Beat Rate

75%

Avg EPS Surprise

+65.50%

Avg Stock Reaction

+1.00%

Last Quarter Recap

In Q4 2023, Banco Macro reported an impressive EPS of $8.89, significantly beating expectations by 340%. However, revenue figures were not disclosed, leaving some uncertainty.

Management Promises & Guidance

Expectations

Wall Street Expectations

Analysts are generally optimistic about Banco Macro's upcoming earnings, expecting solid EPS and revenue figures. The stock has shown a tendency to react positively to earnings beats.

Bull Case

If Banco Macro exceeds EPS estimates, it could signal strong operational performance and growth, potentially driving the stock higher.

Bear Case

Conversely, if the bank misses expectations, it may raise concerns about its financial stability and future growth prospects, leading to a decline in stock price.

Key Metrics to Watch

EPS

$2170.18

Earnings per share is a key indicator of the company's profitability and overall financial health.

Revenue

$1193.6B

Total revenue reflects the company's ability to generate sales and is critical for assessing growth.

Expectations

Two Questions That Matter

The print will turn on these two things.

Will EPS exceed the consensus estimate of $2170.18?

A beat on EPS would reinforce confidence in the bank's profitability and operational efficiency.

What will be the reported revenue figure compared to the consensus of $1193.6B?

Revenue performance is crucial for understanding the bank's growth trajectory and market position.

Edge

What the Street Is Missing

Why consensus could be wrong

While the consensus expects solid earnings, the market may be underestimating potential headwinds from economic factors affecting the banking sector.

Supporting Evidence

Options are pricing a 10.49% move, indicating higher volatility than historical averages.

The bank's recent EPS surprises show a pattern of inconsistency, which could lead to unexpected results.

Key Risk

If the reported EPS falls below $2,003.90, it could undermine confidence in the bank's growth narrative.

Edge

Thesis-Break Levels

Pre-commit to what would confirm each case.

The core debate this quarter revolves around whether Banco Macro can sustain its recent profitability and revenue growth amid economic challenges.

Bull Confirmed If

An EPS of $2,200 or higher would confirm the bull case, indicating strong profitability.

Bear Confirmed If

An EPS below $2,003.90 would confirm the bear case, suggesting potential weaknesses in financial performance.

Pre-Earnings Positioning

Options Market

Implied Move

±10.49%

Historical Avg

±2.7%

Pricing rich

The options market is pricing in a significant move, suggesting that traders expect volatility around the earnings announcement.

Options are pricing ±10.5% while BMA has averaged ±2.7% over the last 8 prints — setup is pricing rich.

Detail

ATM IV

0.5%

30d HV

60.1%

Calls (14K)P/C Ratio: 0.03Puts (49K)

Edge

Historical Setup Match

Cross-company pattern from 30 similar setups.

Prior-quarter beat + options rich in Financials

n=30

Fade rate: 12 of 25 (48%)

Preparation

Post-Print Playbook

Likely market behavior by outcome — not investment advice.

Beat & Raise

If Banco Macro beats expectations, history suggests the stock could rise by about 2.26%, confirming strong operational performance.

In-Line / Cautious

If results are in line with expectations, the stock may react cautiously, reflecting uncertainty about future growth.

Miss

If the bank misses estimates, the stock could decline by approximately 2.75%, raising concerns about its financial stability.

Earnings Track Record

Preparation

What to Listen For

Call Prep

1Any updates on loan growth and credit quality.
2Management's outlook on economic conditions affecting the banking sector.
3Details on cost management and efficiency initiatives.
4Insights into customer demand and market competition.
5Any commentary on regulatory changes impacting operations.